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Tuesday 12 July 2011

If you thought you were depressed about the UK economy; Liam Halligan makes me look cheerful about its prospects

'The only reason we are still able to roll over our sovereign liabilities is because, for the most part, the true extent of the fiscal risks we face hasn't yet been priced in to yields on global markets. What's happening on the eurozone's periphery, even if the current crisis is averted, is just the beginning.'
There's plenty more in Liam's Telegraph article  but I warn you it is not a cheerful read.
'In my view, a sudden and massive re-pricing of Western sovereign risk will happen much sooner than is widely expected. For now, global investors are in denial, assessing that default risks in many of the big emerging markets are much greater than in the West.

This is nonsense – particularly when you consider that the governments of the "advanced" countries are tacitly reliant on debasing and depreciating their currencies in order to lower their liabilities, so imposing on their creditors a form of "soft default".

At some point soon, and it brings me no pleasure to write this, private sector Western investors, together with our emerging market creditors, will drastically cut their exposure to Western sovereign debt. This will come as a rude awakening to the US and the big European sovereigns, who for years now have abused their "risk-free" status.'
Who is Liam Halligan. He is chief economist at Prosperity Capital Management. Greece, Ireland, now Italy the EuroZone is not in a good state and most people are in denial.What should we do, how do we survive the coming financial apocalypse? I don't think any but the super-rich can or will.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Over the years I have followed,
Liam , he usually gets things right. Needless to say, he is a hate figure for the Left and I haven't seen him on the BBC for years.