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Friday, 7 December 2007

Bye bye Sterling, bye bye Brown

Bloomberg have a lovely piece on the economic future for our "an end to boom and bust" Prime Minister.

"Brown's Future as Prime Minister Hangs on Pound

By Matthew Lynn

Dec. 5 (Bloomberg) -- It may become the most calamitous premiership for at least 100 years. Less than six months after taking over from Tony Blair as U.K. prime minister, Gordon Brown has already stumbled through a series of disasters. He is, to use a popular word in the financial markets, a subprime minister and he leads a subprime economy. Brown has taken a beating. As he knows from his 10 years as chancellor, so long as you can deliver a prosperous economy and keep public spending flowing, you can survive just about anything. If you can't, you start to look like sliced sausage..... There is little doubt that the outlook is grim... Many economists see sterling as suspended in mid-air. The U.K. has massive trade and budget deficits. For the past year, the markets have been pummeling the dollar. That will stop soon. Already, the U.S. trade gap is narrowing, and soon a German- style export-led recovery will be under way in the U.S. The currency markets will need a new target -- after all, traders have to sell something to stay in business. Sterling looks like a sitting duck.

It might well be the fragility of Brown's government that provides the trigger for an attack on sterling. Brown's problems are only just starting. It will be the foreign-exchange markets that finish him off."

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