Is it all falling into place for Andy Murray?

With the news that Rafael Nadal will not defend his Wimbledon men's singles crown because of a knee injury, a decision he delayed until after the draw was made, Andy Murray's chances of reaching the final have just increased hugely. I believe that the draw will not be re-made and so because of the odd way that Wimbledon seed their event, with the first and third seeds in the top half of the draw and second and fourth in the bottom, rather than the more logical first and fourth then second and third. Wimbledon's shuffling of players has moved the dangerous fifth seed Juan Martin del Potro into Nadal's place in the top quarter of the draw and promoted James Blake into his place as 17th seed.

A quick look at Andy Murray's quarter of the draw proves troubling in other ways. His first round opponent America's Robert Kendrick should provide no more than a tenacious opponent and his second round opponent will be either Italy's Riccardo Ghedin or the Latvian Ernests Gulbis. It's the third round where there may be a problem, the top seeded player is Serbia's Viktor Troicki but the player that worries me is the returning from injury and so unseeded Taylor Dent. Dent reached the fourth round at Wimbledon in 2005 and was ranked as high as 21 before succumbing to a back injury. Since returning to the tour in 2008 Dent has had some good runs including, as a qualifier, reaching the fourth round of the 2009 Sony Ericsson Open, defeating Nicolas Almagro and Tommy Robredo in the process. He eventually lost to Roger Federer in the fourth round, 3-6, 2-6. This match was closer than it sounds and the first set included a 15 minute Federer service game in which Dent had eight break points. Taylor Dent has once again had to go through qualifying to get into the main draw at Wimbledon which means that he has already won three matches on grass and may have his serve and volley game nicely honed already. Taylor Dent is the possessor of the fourth fastest recorded serve in the world, at a velocity of 150mph. Only Andy Roddick, Ivo Karlović and the semi-retired Joachim Johansson are recorded to have served faster. Andy Roddick is a possible semi-final opponent for Murray, whilst Karlović is in the other half of the draw. Could Taylor Dent be as dangerous to Andy Murray's chances in 2009 as Goran Ivanišević was to Tim Henman's in 2001?

Assuming, and it is not a done deal, that Murray beats Dent, then he should face either Marat Safin or Stanislas Wawrinka in the fourth round. Win that and a quarter final match against Gilles Simon, Nicolas Kiefer, Juan Carlos Ferrero or Fernando Gonzalez looks likely; that looks like an easier match on grass than Dent, Safin or Wawrinka to me. Then a semi-final against either Juan Martin Del Potro (who is in a tricky eighth of the draw), Andy Roddick or Nikolay Davydenko looks likely. And in the final? Well apart from Federer, the bottom half of the draw contains: James Blake, the ever tricky Tommy Haas, Michael Llodra, the giants Ivan Ljubicic and Marin Cilic seeded to meet in the second round, Mardy Fish, Janko Tipsarevic and not too much else (a hostage to fortune if ever I heard one).


So what are Andy Murray's chances this Wimbledon? For a couple of years I have been saying that I thought his best chance of winning a first Grand Slam would come at Flushing Meadows not Wimbledon but the withdrawal of Nadal this year changes that a little. If Andy Murray can get past Taylor Dent then I can see him getting into the final against Federer and then it would be very very interesting. That's just over two weeks away so in the meantime I foresee some great tennis and some afternoon's off work...