Ice free by when?

As I reported this morning the BBC are scaring the populace with a report that

"The Arctic Ocean could be largely ice-free and open to shipping during the summer in as little as ten years' time, a top polar specialist has said."

Ice free by 2019, scary.

Oddly they have not referenced this report of theirs from 2007 that claimed

"Scientists in the US have presented one of the most dramatic forecasts yet for the disappearance of Arctic sea ice.

Their latest modelling studies indicate northern polar waters could be ice-free in summers within just 5-6 years. "

Ice free by 2012/13.

So in 2007 it was that the Arctic will be ice free by 2012/13, in 2009 is is ice free by 2019, what will the scary prediction be in 2011? The scare story is always there, it is just the date that it will happen that keeps being put back...