The Daily Mail yesterday included a for and against letter in answer to the debate question 'Is Nigel Lawson right on climate change?' Here's part of one of those letters:
Let's look at Alan Aldridge's 'facts' and see if they are anything of the sort:
1) ' it is a fact that climate change is a greater threat to the world than international terrorism - This claim is hard to prove one way or another but having lost a friend to Islamic terrorism and having witnessed Islamic terrorists planes flying into the Twin Towers and killing thousands I am sceptical of this 'fact'.
2) 'It's a fact that we are only 20 years away from fossil fuels running out.' - Not true and I cannot see how such a claim could be justified. There are reserves of oil that have yet to be exploited, when the price is right they will be extracted. The worldwide reserves of shale oil and gas dwarf current oil reserves and could fuel the world for many years. The doom-mongers have been warning of fossil fuels running out since the 1960s, it has not happened yet and won't for a lot more than 20 years. I am willing to make a bet with Alan Aldridge that fossil fuels will still be being produced in 25 years time; will you accept a £500 bet Mr Aldridge and an apology from whoever is proved wrong?
3) 'It's a fact that we have already passed peak oil production.' - Peak oil was first claimed to have been reached in the 1960s and the same claim has been regularly made ever since by those with an axe to grind. The proponents of the passing of peak oil often ignore the prospect of new discoveries of oil and the advances in extraction techniques. We are probably close to peak oil but that does not mean the same as an end to oil production.
4) 'It's a fact that the UK is 80 per cent dependent on fossil fuels' - Absolutely not correct; I make it over 90%. However the solution is not increased reliance on largely unreliable and expensive wind power. Nuclear has a large place in our futures along with energy conservation.
I make that four 'facts' of which one 'fact' is unsubstantiatable, one 'fact' actually an underestimate but I disagree with the implied solution, one 'fact' that may be close to be being correct but is not as important as it sounds and one 'fact' that is laughable wrong. Nice try Alan Aldridge, will you agree to my wager, after all you know that 'It's a fact that we are only 20 years away from fossil fuels running out'.
Anyone else feel like having a bet with Alan Aldridge?
I have contacted Riomay with this comment:
'Let's be clear; it is a fact that climate change is a greater threat to the world than international terrorism. It's a fact that we are only 20 years away from fossil fuels running out. It's a fact that we have already passed peak oil production. It's a fact that the UK is 80 per cent dependent on fossil fuels...... Lawson's premise of cutting back on environment policy to ave our economy will be academic if we no longer have a planet to live on.'Wow that's a lot of 'facts', I wonder how many are actually substantiatable? The writer of that letter is Alan Aldridge and he signs himself as of 'Romay Renewable Energies, Crawley, Sussex'. So no financial axe to grind there then as a company who describe themselves as 'one of the UK’s leading domestic and commercial renewable solution providers who design, supply and install renewable energy systems' pushes'facts' that are anything but facts.
Let's look at Alan Aldridge's 'facts' and see if they are anything of the sort:
1) ' it is a fact that climate change is a greater threat to the world than international terrorism - This claim is hard to prove one way or another but having lost a friend to Islamic terrorism and having witnessed Islamic terrorists planes flying into the Twin Towers and killing thousands I am sceptical of this 'fact'.
2) 'It's a fact that we are only 20 years away from fossil fuels running out.' - Not true and I cannot see how such a claim could be justified. There are reserves of oil that have yet to be exploited, when the price is right they will be extracted. The worldwide reserves of shale oil and gas dwarf current oil reserves and could fuel the world for many years. The doom-mongers have been warning of fossil fuels running out since the 1960s, it has not happened yet and won't for a lot more than 20 years. I am willing to make a bet with Alan Aldridge that fossil fuels will still be being produced in 25 years time; will you accept a £500 bet Mr Aldridge and an apology from whoever is proved wrong?
3) 'It's a fact that we have already passed peak oil production.' - Peak oil was first claimed to have been reached in the 1960s and the same claim has been regularly made ever since by those with an axe to grind. The proponents of the passing of peak oil often ignore the prospect of new discoveries of oil and the advances in extraction techniques. We are probably close to peak oil but that does not mean the same as an end to oil production.
4) 'It's a fact that the UK is 80 per cent dependent on fossil fuels' - Absolutely not correct; I make it over 90%. However the solution is not increased reliance on largely unreliable and expensive wind power. Nuclear has a large place in our futures along with energy conservation.
I make that four 'facts' of which one 'fact' is unsubstantiatable, one 'fact' actually an underestimate but I disagree with the implied solution, one 'fact' that may be close to be being correct but is not as important as it sounds and one 'fact' that is laughable wrong. Nice try Alan Aldridge, will you agree to my wager, after all you know that 'It's a fact that we are only 20 years away from fossil fuels running out'.
Anyone else feel like having a bet with Alan Aldridge?
I have contacted Riomay with this comment:
'In a letter published in The Mail on friday your Alan Aldridge made four main claims of 'facts'. I disagree with the veracity of all of them, you can read why here - http://notasheepmaybeagoat.blogspot.com/2011/06/its-fact-is-it-really.htmlI wonder what the response will be?
So will Alan Aldridge take me up on my offer of a bet regarding his laughable 'fact' that 'It's a fact that we are only 20 years away from fossil fuels running out.'
I am willing to make a bet with Alan Aldridge that fossil fuels will still be being produced in 25 years time; will you accept a £500 bet Mr Aldridge and an apology from whoever is proved wrong?'
"it is a fact that climate change is a greater threat to the world than international terrorism."
ReplyDeleteNo, that is an opinion, not a fact.
"It's a fact that we are only 20 years away from fossil fuels running out."
Not even close to true. We have coal to last for hundreds or thousands of years. Easy to reach Middle Eastern oil that pops out of the ground at a cost of less than $10 a barrel (the production price not the market price) is getting harder to find, but our supply of other fossil fuels (shale gas and shale coal) is even mre plentiful than coal.
"It's a fact that we have already passed peak oil production."
For the reasons above, not necessarily, but probably not.
"It's a fact that the UK is 80 per cent dependent on fossil fuels...... "
Could be true, but I am not sure you can be 80% "dependent" any more than you can be 80% pregnant. But since we aren't running out for a long time we don't need to worry about this, but hey, I thought we were talking about climate change and somehow the AGW protagonists seem to have tried to move the subject.