US Polling update

Whilst the US electorate votes after being told how close the race is, this article struck me as interesting:

'While every single poll on the planet predicts Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage of three to eleven points, the latest Rasmussen survey of party affiliation taken throughout October shows that Republicans enjoy a  huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election.

According to Twitter's invaluable NumbersMuncher, Rasmussen correctly predicted 2008 would be a D+7 election and incorrectly predicted 2010 would be D+3. (2010 was D+0, or even, so Rasmussen gave an edge to Democrats they didn't have.)

If the 2012 race is D+2, Romney's probably going to win. If the race is R+6, Romney's going to enjoy a landslide.

The most important piece of information in this poll, though, is that Rasmussen's sample is a monstrous 15,000 likely voter. Moreover, Rasmussen's Party ID results match similar results found by Gallup and  Pew.

Again, if Rasmussen is anywhere near as correct as he's been in the past, all of these polls showing Obama holding small leads, are dead wrong. They're under-sampling Republicans in a major way; predicting an electorate that looks like 2008.'

I hope Rasmussen is correct.