Fed up with the incessant rain in the UK the past 10 days or so?
It's very odd because I distinctly remember The Guardian reporting in 2006 as fact that (my emphasis):
What about the second part of what "scientists know"? "Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will because much of the water will run off the baked ground."
Shall we take a look at reservoir levels in the baked South of England, the area with the biggest water problem? South East Water report the levels at their two largest reservoirs:
Arlington Reservoir
was over 97% full on 20 March (the last day they report levels for), Ardingly
Reservoir was 100% full on the same date. Now they might be lower now, they should be, but if South East Water aren't bothered enough to update their site then I doubt that there is a serious issue.
What about the South West maybe they are faring worse? Well South West Water are somewhat more up to date than South East Water and they report data up until 9 August. They report percentage data for their five reservoirs: Roadford, Colliford, Wimbleball, Stithians and Burrator. The figures show that the average storage levels across these five reservoirs was 74.9%. As a comparison it was around 65% in 1995; water shortage getting worse?
Does it look as though there are problems replenishing thirsty reservoirs because of the declining rainfall that scientists know about?
How about Severn Trent? They report weekly and you'll see that for the last nine weeks the figure hasn't dropped below 82.4%.
I could go on and on but I think that the pattern will be similar across most of the UK regions.
So how about The Environment Agency the body that is so certain about Climate Change that they confidently state on their web site:
The Environment Agency publish their Water Situation for England and Wales figures on a monthly basis so the latest report is for July and tells us that (my emphasis):
So after years of knowing that reservoirs would not be replenished by winter rains we have a situation, as the rain pours off my roof, where groundwater is normal or higher at half of sites, where rainfall in July was 144% of the long term average and reservoir stocks are at 82% of total capacity.
Scientists know that 'Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground.?'
I beg to differ.
It's very odd because I distinctly remember The Guardian reporting in 2006 as fact that (my emphasis):
"Scientists know a lot about how events will unfold...which means that whatever we do, our climate destiny is fixed for the next few decades... Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground."Scientists know... climate destiny is fixed... Rainfall will decline in the summer..." It's all rubbish folks; most of these scientists are not predicting based on science, they are designing science to fit the desired predictions.
What about the second part of what "scientists know"? "Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will because much of the water will run off the baked ground."
Shall we take a look at reservoir levels in the baked South of England, the area with the biggest water problem? South East Water report the levels at their two largest reservoirs:
What about the South West maybe they are faring worse? Well South West Water are somewhat more up to date than South East Water and they report data up until 9 August. They report percentage data for their five reservoirs: Roadford, Colliford, Wimbleball, Stithians and Burrator. The figures show that the average storage levels across these five reservoirs was 74.9%. As a comparison it was around 65% in 1995; water shortage getting worse?
Does it look as though there are problems replenishing thirsty reservoirs because of the declining rainfall that scientists know about?
How about Severn Trent? They report weekly and you'll see that for the last nine weeks the figure hasn't dropped below 82.4%.
I could go on and on but I think that the pattern will be similar across most of the UK regions.
So how about The Environment Agency the body that is so certain about Climate Change that they confidently state on their web site:
"It's an inescapable fact: our planet is warming up. Records show that temperatures around the world have risen steadily since 1900...Maybe these are some of the scientists who know what's going to happen to the climate in the UK. After all they also seem to know that we are going to experience "wetter winters with an increased risk of floods, and hotter, drier summers that put pressure on water resources". Let's look at the Environment Agency's own figures...
Climate change is the biggest environmental challenge facing the world today. We know the Earth's climate does change naturally over a long timescale, but the overwhelming majority of the scientific community now accepts that human activities are causing significant, rapid changes to our climate.
Over the past century, global temperatures have risen - the 10 warmest years on record have all been since 1990. The contribution to global warming from human activity is linked to increases in the amounts of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. As the concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, less heat can escape from the atmosphere, making the Earth warmer. The main greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is released by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas.
...
What will happen if we do nothing?
The latest data tells us that some climate change is already inevitable, so we will need to adapt to its impacts. We must plan for more extreme weather conditions: wetter winters with an increased risk of floods, and hotter, drier summers that put pressure on water resources. Sea levels will also rise, increasing the risk of flooding around our coastline."
The Environment Agency publish their Water Situation for England and Wales figures on a monthly basis so the latest report is for July and tells us that (my emphasis):
"Following on from a dry June, July was wetter than average, with rainfall totals across England at 144% of the long term average (LTA).
Soil moisture deficits decreased by up to 50mm across most areas during the month, with the greatest decreases in parts of Cumbria.
Monthly mean river flows decreased compared to June at most indicator sites, but remained normal or higher for the time of year at more than two-thirds of sites.
Groundwater levels decreased during the month at all but one indicator site. End of month groundwater levels remain normal or higher at half of the indicator sites.
Reservoir stocks decreased at all reported reservoirs and reservoir groups during July, and at the end of the month were normal for the time of year at most sites.
Overall stocks for England decreased to 82% of total capacity.'
So after years of knowing that reservoirs would not be replenished by winter rains we have a situation, as the rain pours off my roof, where groundwater is normal or higher at half of sites, where rainfall in July was 144% of the long term average and reservoir stocks are at 82% of total capacity.
Scientists know that 'Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground.?'
I beg to differ.
Another fab post; I haven't thanked you in a while.... Yours is a wonderful blog.
ReplyDeleteInteresting post. You might have gone even further, and pointed out that the records DO NOT show that “temperatures around the world have risen steadily since 1900...” From 1900 to 1910, they were pretty steady; from 1940 to 1975, they declined slightly, and from 1998 to the present there has been no detectable rise. Perhaps the Environment Agency consider steps to be a form of ramp.
ReplyDeleteYou could also have pointed out that CO2 is NOT the main greenhouse gas, water vapour is. Carbon dioxide is released by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas, but, as the burning of these fuels has risen exponentially, the rise in CO2 has been more or less steady – in other words, the two may not be linked; the principle source of CO2 might be something other than fossil fuels.
They are right, in that climate change is inevitable – just as sunrise and sunset are, and summer and winter. There is not much we can do about any of those, other than adapt. The changes in climates have been pretty minimal, when compared with those others mentioned, and the slight rise in temperatures that we have seen since the Little Ice Age have been almost entirely beneficial, so ask yourself: why is the prospect of warming/changing climates being hyped up as such a disastrous occurrence?