On Tuesday morning a committee in Committee Room 14 at the Palace of Westminster will allow some ninety minutes consideration of the extra £9.5 billion payment to the IMF. A large amount of this money seems likely to be lent to Greece and maybe other troubled Euroland countries. As a comparison this Conservative lead Coalition government has 'viciously' cut Labour’s spending plans by £5.2 billion in 2010-11 and by £9 billion in 2011-12. Who in the UK would be hurt if this money was not provided? What guarantees do we have that this money will not be simply pissed up against a wall prior to the next bailout?
Actually there are some pensioners who may well be hurt by withdrawing the £9.5 billion: Peter Mandelson and the other EU pensioners whose support for the EU is apparently guaranteed by the promise of their EU pension.
Or have I got this wrong? Alex thinks I have and I respect his knowledge of matters financial:
Although:
1. Yes it is just a facilty but how likely do you think it is that it won't be called upon?
2. Quite possibly but major EU countries (and others) were not facing a sovereign debt crisis in 1989, they are now
3. Proportionately you may be right but it is still money that the UK should not have to provide
4. In the past maybe but going forward are you 100% sure the IMF will always get its money back?
5. That the last Labour government agreed to this does not surprise me in the least!
Actually there are some pensioners who may well be hurt by withdrawing the £9.5 billion: Peter Mandelson and the other EU pensioners whose support for the EU is apparently guaranteed by the promise of their EU pension.
Or have I got this wrong? Alex thinks I have and I respect his knowledge of matters financial:
'Alex said...
Sorry you have this (mostly) wrong, probably been reading to much Carswell. Just because he is an MP doesn't mean he isn't a loony dingbat.
1. This is a credit limit not an expense. We aren't paying in any cash, just agreeing to extend facilities.
2. It puts the IMF capitalisation back to the same proportion of world GDP as it was last time it was recapitalised in 1989./ I don't remember anybody making a fuss at the time.
3. While the capital is nearly doubled, the burden is shifted proportionately to wards the BRICs and away from the first world.
4. The IMF always gets its money back. It is the lender of last resort and goes in with heavy boots.
5. The deal was agreed by the last government and was signed by most countries in the world from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe.
Although:
1. Yes it is just a facilty but how likely do you think it is that it won't be called upon?
2. Quite possibly but major EU countries (and others) were not facing a sovereign debt crisis in 1989, they are now
3. Proportionately you may be right but it is still money that the UK should not have to provide
4. In the past maybe but going forward are you 100% sure the IMF will always get its money back?
5. That the last Labour government agreed to this does not surprise me in the least!
Sorry you have this (mostly) wrong, probably been reading to much Carswell. Just because he is an MP doesn't mean he isn't a loony dingbat.
ReplyDelete1. This is a credit limit not an expense. We aren't paying in any cash, just agreeing to extend facilities.
2. It puts the IMF capitalisation back to the same proportion of world GDP as it was last time it was recapitalised in 1989./ I don't remember anybody making a fuss at the time.
3. While the capital is nearly doubled, the burden is shifted proportionately to wards the BRICs and away from the first world.
4. The IMF always gets its money back. It is the lender of last resort and goes in with heavy boots.
5. The deal was agreed by the last government and was signed by most countries in the world from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe.
Noted and commented upon in update to original post...
ReplyDelete1. "How likely is it to be called on" - very likely but that is what the IMF was created for and not just for the Greeks, whose borrowing needs are far smaller than the committed capital of IMF mambers
ReplyDelete2. "Quite possibly but major EU countries (and others) were not facing a sovereign debt crisis in 1989, they are now"
The UK had a similar crisis in the 70s. Plentty of other larger countries than Greece (e.g. Argentina, Brazil) have gone to the IMF in the past. The Greek problem should be a warning to other EU countries that are less competitive than the EU average [China and India are eating your lunch].
3. "Proportionately you may be right but it is still money that the UK should not have to provide" I don't see why not. If we agree with the IMF mechanism, which seems to work, we have to update our commitments inline with the value of the world economy (or our share of it).
4. "In the past maybe but going forward are you 100% sure the IMF will always get its money back?"
If the political will is there, which it usually is (except in the case of some sub-Saharan basket cases or post-war situation where loans can be written off as a form of aid).
If a country has a well-developed economy, the IMF ensures that the economy is viable by cutting back on public sector expenditure. It has negotiting power with governments that is not available to other lenders. Countries need to import commodities, that means they need foreign currency reserves and that means they need to deal with other central banks, and that means they have to play ball with the IMF.
5. "That the last Labour government agreed to this does not surprise me in the least!"
I am not sure that any realistic government would have agreed anything different. This is a long term arrangement that existed long before the current debt crisis and will be in place long after this crisis has gone away.