StatCounter

Friday 23 May 2008

Conservative Target seats

UK Polling Report have a list of "the two hundred seats where the Conservative party needs to overturn the lowest percentage majority to win the seat. These are not necessarily the seats where it will be easiest to do so, or the seats that the party will actually be targeting at the next election. In seats marked with an asterisk (*) the Conservative party is currently in third (or lower) place." Crewe and Nantwich was at number 165 and not a real target, here's the list:

"1. Finchley and Golders Green 31 Swing required: 0.05 %
2. Crawley 37 Swing required: 0.05 %
3. Croydon Central 317 Swing required: 0.35 %
4. Battersea 336 Swing required: 0.4 %
5. Aberconwy 243 Swing required: 0.4 %
6. Harlow 357 Swing required: 0.45 %
7. Milton Keynes South 483 Swing required: 0.5 %
8. Hove 450 Swing required: 0.5 %
9. Romsey and Southampton North 462 Swing required: 0.55 %
10. Cheltenham 515 Swing required: 0.55 %
11. Eastleigh 530 Swing required: 0.55 %
12. Dartford 583 Swing required: 0.65 %
13. St Austell and Newquay 630 Swing required: 0.8 %
14. Westmorland and Lonsdale 836 Swing required: 0.9 %
15. City of Chester 813 Swing required: 0.9 %
16. Stroud 1007 Swing required: 0.95 %
17. Bristol North West 1075 Swing required: 1.05 %
18. Loughborough 1138 Swing required: 1.15 %
19. Carshalton and Wallington 1044 Swing required: 1.25 %
20. Cardiff North 1146 Swing required: 1.25 %
21. Hastings and Rye 1205 Swing required: 1.3 %
22. Chippenham 1260 Swing required: 1.35 %
23. Calder Valley 1346 Swing required: 1.4 %
24. Hereford and North Herefordshire 1297 Swing required: 1.45 %
25. Stourbridge 1285 Swing required: 1.45 %
26. Taunton Deane 1702 Swing required: 1.5 %
27. Colne Valley 1535 Swing required: 1.5 %
28. Corby 1517 Swing required: 1.55 %
29. Brighton Kemptown 1213 Swing required: 1.65 %
30. Perth and North Perthshire 1521 Swing required: 1.65 %
31. South Basildon and East Thurrock 1467 Swing required: 1.7 %
32. Vale of Glamorgan 1664 Swing required: 1.8 %
33. Swindon South 1565 Swing required: 1.85 %
34. Northampton South 1386 Swing required: 1.85 %
35. Dorset South 1812 Swing required: 1.85 %
36. Milton Keynes North 1862 Swing required: 1.9 %
37. Stafford 1800 Swing required: 1.95 %
38. Watford 1148 Swing required: 1.96 %*
39. Angus 1601 Swing required: 2.1 %
40. York Outer 1821 Swing required: 2.25 %
41. Redditch 1948 Swing required: 2.3 %
42. Broxstowe 2267 Swing required: 2.35 %
43. Burton 2134 Swing required: 2.4 %
44. High Peak 2332 Swing required: 2.5 %
45. Pendle 2180 Swing required: 2.65 %
46. Carmarthen West and South Pembrokshire 2063 Swing required: 2.7 %
47. Birmingham Edgbaston 2187 Swing required: 2.75 %
48. Bury North 2236 Swing required: 2.75 %
49. Wolverhampton South West 2252 Swing required: 2.8 %
50. Ribble South 2686 Swing required: 2.85 %
51. Dumfries and Galloway 2922 Swing required: 2.85 %
52. Tamworth 2569 Swing required: 2.95 %
53. Derbyshire South 2733 Swing required: 3 %
54. Torbay 2755 Swing required: 3 %
55. Cleethorpes 2642 Swing required: 3.05 %
56. Harrow East 2647 Swing required: 3.1 %
57. Swindon North 2832 Swing required: 3.3 %
58. Sutton and Cheam 2870 Swing required: 3.3 %
59. Worcester 3144 Swing required: 3.4 %
60. Bradford West 2580 Swing required: 3.55 %
61. Richmond Park 3649 Swing required: 3.6 %
62. Great Yarmouth 3055 Swing required: 3.7 %
63. Hendon 3005 Swing required: 3.75 %
64. Brentford and Isleworth 3471 Swing required: 4 %
65. Cheadle 3950 Swing required: 4 %
66. Eltham 3174 Swing required: 4.1 %
67. Bedford 3476 Swing required: 4.1 %
68. Brigg and Goole 3347 Swing required: 4.1 %
69. Portsmouth South 3181 Swing required: 4.25 %
70. Stevenage 3451 Swing required: 4.25 %
71. Rossendale and Darwen 3752 Swing required: 4.25 %
72. Halifax 3438 Swing required: 4.35 %
73. Dudley South 3126 Swing required: 4.4 %
74. Northampton North 3483 Swing required: 4.5 %
75. Westminster North 3021 Swing required: 4.55 %
76. Edinburgh South 405 Swing required: 4.55 %*
77. Blackpool North and Cleveleys 3540 Swing required: 4.65 %
78. Southport 3838 Swing required: 4.65 %
79. Wirral South 3724 Swing required: 4.7 %
80. Newton Abbott 4573 Swing required: 4.75 %
81. Leicestershire North West 4477 Swing required: 4.75 %
82. Wyre Forest 4574 Swing required: 4.75 %
83. Lincoln 3844 Swing required: 4.8 %
84. Leeds North West 911 Swing required: 4.8 %*
85. Nuneaton 3843 Swing required: 4.85 %
86. Bolton West 4075 Swing required: 4.9 %
87. Ochil and South Perthshire 688 Swing required: 4.95 %*
88. Halesowen and Rowley Regis 4140 Swing required: 5 %
89. Brecon and Radnorshire 3905 Swing required: 5.1 %
90. Dover 5061 Swing required: 5.2 %
91. Gedling 4876 Swing required: 5.25 %
92. Keighley 4852 Swing required: 5.25 %
93. Carlisle 4069 Swing required: 5.3 %
94. Bolton North East 3581 Swing required: 5.35 %
95. Plymouth Sutton and Devonport 4305 Swing required: 5.35 %
96. Dewsbury 4924 Swing required: 5.4 %
97. Warrington South 5062 Swing required: 5.45 %
98. Pudsey 4751 Swing required: 5.45 %
99. Mid Dorset and North Poole 5270 Swing required: 5.45 %
100. Stirling 4767 Swing required: 5.45 %
101. Devon North 5377 Swing required: 5.5 %
102. Oxford West and Abingdon 5525 Swing required: 5.65 %
103. Dudley North 4145 Swing required: 5.7 %
104. Elmet and Rothwell 6295 Swing required: 5.7 %
105. Poplar and Limehouse 3942 Swing required: 5.75 %
106. Camborne and Redruth 4119 Swing required: 5.75 %*
107. Reading West 4980 Swing required: 5.8 %
108. Tynemouth 5532 Swing required: 5.85 %
109. Ipswich 5274 Swing required: 6 %
110. Waveney 5936 Swing required: 6 %
111. Morecambe and Lunsdale 4935 Swing required: 6 %
112. Tooting 5190 Swing required: 6.1 %
113. Chatham and Alyesford 4800 Swing required: 6.1 %
114. Lancaster and Fleetwood 4056 Swing required: 6.1 %
115. Barrow in Furness 4836 Swing required: 6.25 %
116. Weaver vale 4750 Swing required: 6.35 %
117. Warwick and Leamington Spa 5266 Swing required: 6.4 %
118. Cornwall North 5477 Swing required: 6.45 %
119. Gloucester 6068 Swing required: 6.5 %
120. Hampstead and Kilburn 1134 Swing required: 6.5 %*
121. Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk 5901 Swing required: 6.5 %
122. Argyll and Bute 5636 Swing required: 6.5 %
123. Stockton South 5696 Swing required: 6.6 %
124. Cornwall South East 6043 Swing required: 6.6 %
125. Thurrock 5501 Swing required: 6.6 %
126. Truro and Falmouth 5131 Swing required: 6.65 %
127. Sefton Central 5542 Swing required: 6.65 %
128. Bath 5578 Swing required: 6.7 %
129. Hammersmith 5646 Swing required: 6.75 %
130. Derby North 3552 Swing required: 6.8 %*
131. Kingswood 6354 Swing required: 6.85 %
132. Hyndburn 5504 Swing required: 6.9 %
133. Renfrewshire East 6657 Swing required: 7 %
134. Lancashire West 6084 Swing required: 7.05 %
135. Brighton Pavillion 6523 Swing required: 7.1 %
136. Colchester 5864 Swing required: 7.15 %
137. Amber Valley 6068 Swing required: 7.2 %
138. Vale of Clwyd 4726 Swing required: 7.25 %
139. Moray 5676 Swing required: 7.3 %
140. Luton South 5700 Swing required: 7.35 %
141. Telford 5516 Swing required: 7.4 %
142. Winchester 8044 Swing required: 7.45 %
143. Batley and Spen 6814 Swing required: 7.45 %
144. Leeds North East 6599 Swing required: 7.6 %
145. Newport West 5458 Swing required: 7.65 %
146. Workington 5867 Swing required: 7.7 %
147. Warwickshire North 6698 Swing required: 7.7 %
148. Ellesmere Port and Neston 6612 Swing required: 7.75 %
149. Edinburgh North and Leith 2153 Swing required: 7.75 %*
150. Coventry South 6552 Swing required: 7.9 %
151. Wakefield 6537 Swing required: 7.95 %
152. Chorley 6918 Swing required: 8 %
153. Harrogate and Knaresborough 7811 Swing required: 8.05 %
154. Erewash 6893 Swing required: 8.1 %
155. Norfolk North 8177 Swing required: 8.15 %
156. Norwich South 3129 Swing required: 8.15 %*
157. Sheffield Hallam 7722 Swing required: 8.15 %
158. Luton North 6437 Swing required: 8.2 %
159. Sherwood 6722 Swing required: 8.2 %
160. Bristol East 7379 Swing required: 8.25 %
161. Edinburgh South West 7242 Swing required: 8.25 %
162. Bassetlaw 8126 Swing required: 8.25 %
163. Norwich North 6696 Swing required: 8.3 %
164. Dagenham and Rainham 6581 Swing required: 8.35 %
165. Crewe and Nantwich 7494 Swing required: 8.4 %
166. Gower 6703 Swing required: 8.5 %
167. Copeland 6828 Swing required: 8.75 %
168. Lewes 8928 Swing required: 8.8 %
169. Blackpool South 5882 Swing required: 8.85 %
170. Bridgend 6022 Swing required: 8.9 %
171. Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine 7471 Swing required: 8.95 %
172. Kingston and Surbiton 9048 Swing required: 9 %
173. Ealing North 7693 Swing required: 9.05 %
174. Middlesbrough South and Cleveland 8061 Swing required: 9.2 %
175. Southampton Test 7548 Swing required: 9.3 %
176. Exeter 9208 Swing required: 9.35 %
177. Oxford East 205 Swing required: 9.55 %*
178. Blackburn 8016 Swing required: 9.6 %
179. Harrow West 7829 Swing required: 9.65 %
180. Twickenham 9965 Swing required: 9.65 %
181. Yeovil 9413 Swing required: 9.65 %
182. Delyn 6644 Swing required: 9.75 %
183. Feltham and Heston 7760 Swing required: 9.75 %
184. Aberdeen South 1348 Swing required: 9.8 %*
185. Birmingham Selly Oak 8354 Swing required: 9.8 %
186. Clwyd South 6185 Swing required: 9.85 %
187. Plymouth Moor View 7907 Swing required: 9.9 %
188. Hazel Grove 7723 Swing required: 9.95 %
189. Nottingham South 7234 Swing required: 9.95 %
190. Slough 8146 Swing required: 10 %
191. Birmingham Hall Green 4191 Swing required: 10.05 %*
192. Newcastle under Lyme 8108 Swing required: 10.2 %
193. Walsall North 6669 Swing required: 10.2 %
194. Cardiff West 7861 Swing required: 10.25 %
195. Arfon 93 Swing required: 10.3 %*
196. Cannock Chase 8655 Swing required: 10.3 %
197. Birmingham Northfield 8179 Swing required: 10.35 %
198. Southampton Itchen 8484 Swing required: 10.45 %
199. Stretford and Urmston 8181 Swing required: 10.5 %
200. Walsall South 8123 Swing required: 10.5 %"


I wonder how many of these Labour and LibDem MPs are worried about their jobs now?

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