Yesterday the political junkies at Political Betting http://politicalbetting.com/ gave the result at the last council elections of the seats who were holding by elections.
Here's one:
'Kersal on Salford (Lab defence, death of sitting member)...
Result of ward at last election (2015): Labour 2,110 (49%), Conservative 1,872 (43%), Green Party 250 (6%), Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition 89 (2%)
CandidatesEstimate: Labour HOLD (Lab 44%, Con 38%, Lib Dem 10%, Ind 5%, Green 3%)'
So a long time Labour seat predicted to stay Labour.
In fact the result was:
CON: 42.0%LAB: 27.3%IND: 17.5%UKIP: 9.0%GRN: 2.4%LDEM: 1.9%
A quite incredible Conservative gain, an almost inexplicable one?
Maybe not: Kersal has a very large Jewish population, probably over a third of the seat. Even usually Labour voting Jews can see what's happened to the Labour Party in the last 20 years or so, and accelerated under Jeremy 'friends in Hamas' Corbyn.
Unfortunately there are probably no more than half a dozen council seats with a Jewish population of more than a third in the country, there's hundreds with a Muslim majority. So I doubt that this result will cause the Labour Party more than a momentary concern, they've more to gain by pandering to Muslims than standing up for Jews.
If Labour had taken a Conservative seat on such a swing the BBC would be cheerleading the result but as it's the other way around there's no mention that I can find on the BBC website.
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