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Wednesday, 2 May 2012

The accuracy of warmist climate predictions

The UK Met Office's three month weather outlook issued on 23 March ran thus (my emphasis):
'The forecast presented here is for April and the average of the April-May-June
period for the United Kingdom as a whole.

This forecast is based on information from observations, several numerical models and expert judgement.

SUMMARY - PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months.

With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period.

The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 1971-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).'
So the experts at the Met Office predict a drier than normal April and we get the wettest April in a century? This is not a one-off, as I have reported before, the Met Office regularly mess-up their weather predictions. The odd thing is that the errors always seem to be towards backing up the warmist agenda, now why would that be?

Actually maybe the oddest thing is why anyone believes the met Office's predictions of impending Climate Change when they get so much else wrong.


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