Pravda predicts

Not the BBC this time, but the original Russian Pravda. Pravda predicts for many countries in 2009, here's a few:

"Russia

There will be scattered protests and some will turn violent as the economy worsens. The government's plans to sustain industrial production, in the heavy industries, and to weaken the ruble and implement high tariffs will have the desired effects of keeping the nation from all out recession. Inflation will continue, though at a smaller pace, due to the overall global deflationary manner. Over all, the Russian economy will prove one of the strongest in the general world collapse.

The Russian military will continue to rebuild, as part of the government spending programs to keep heavy industry going. Weapon sales will also increase as wars and tensions spread due to the crisis.

The Anglo-Marxist drive to start a new Cold War will only increase and monies spent on "democratic" initiatives will increase. This will cause Other Russia to be emboldened enough to create more spectacles for Western financing and consumption. Eventually one or two will turn very violent and there will be deaths. The Russian government will label the National Bolshevik Workers' Party as a terrorist organization and arrest its leaders. The NBWP will turn to actual terror and there will be a small home grown terrorist threat throughout Russia. In general, the government will launch a major drive to clamp down on the skin heads. Gary Kasparov will flee to America where he will become rich making anti-Russian speeches and creating new anti-Russian hatred in the Anglo-Marxist sphere.

The demographic upswing will also suffer with fewer births, requiring more spending by the government to encourage people to continue having children. On the plus side, the inflow of the diasporas will increase, as conditions outside of Russia deteriorate and Russophobia spreads in the Anglo-Marxist sphere. "

No sign of bias there, it's like reading Nick Robinson analysing the prospects for the UK.

"America

The new year is going to bring major suffering to the US economy and society. On the one hand, the Bank Panic of 2008, started in and by America, will continue to ravage the recessional economy. On the other hand, large swaths of the American demographic, who voted for Obama, are expecting miracles that the US government simply can not provide.

As industry after industry lines up for government handouts and large scale money printing to meet those demands escalates, the depressionary bought will, by mid year, turn into a raging inflationary bonfire. Savings will disappear over night. Add to this continued mass layoffs that will reach another 2 to 3 million people, and an unofficial unemployment rate of 15%+ (official US statistics are so doctored as to make them worthless), a series of wars that will continue to drain lives and treasure and the dashed hopes of tens of millions and the US is in for a very hot and horrid summer.

Demonstrations, riots and looting will break out in various sections of the country, hardest hit by the collapsing economy. The government, which in the US has a history of using draconian tactics once violence starts (or as in the case of Seattle in 1998 there was no need for violence for the police to unleash hell on peaceful demonstrators) will lead to casualties and an escalation of tensions. The US army's North America command will be called in to affect areas, forcing martial law and gun confiscations.

By late summer, early fall, the foundations of the Civilian Defense Corp will be laid down. Echos of the Waffen SS anyone?

On the international front, the US will continue its imperial hubris, though maybe with a little more of a kinder face, but do not bet on it. Europe's disappointment will come fast."

Worryingly the above is a possible scenario.

"UK

The economic collapse in the UK will continue a foot with the US. Rights of the citizens will continue to be usurped by the state and all pretences of civil rights will disappear after the Islamics in the city center start to agitate and push out through direct violence all remaining British nationals. England will start to look a lot like Sweden with the cities owned by the immigrant Islamics and the refugee locals forced to pay the Islamics' welfare.

Once the majority starts leaning to the hard right and violence starts to break out between the military Islamics and the ultra nationalists, the UK government will drop all pretenses of the citizens rights and clamp down with martial law. Welcome to the Police State. If the public does not rise up at this point, the UK is lost.

To keep the audience nice and fearful, look for the British powers to escalate a Cold War with Russia, at any cost. "

Maybe a bit apocalyptic but the lines "Rights of the citizens will continue to be usurped by the state" and "the UK government will drop all pretenses of the citizens rights and clamp down with martial law. Welcome to the Police State. If the public does not rise up at this point, the UK is lost." are hard to argue with.


The sections on Poland, the Baltics and the Balkans are interesting exercises in Russian wish-listing. Whereas the sections on the Ukraine and Georgia are quite scary, borderline threatening:

"Ukraine

Ukraine's economy will continue to collapse and the Western puppet Oranges will continue to bicker and feed off of the suffering of the people as they maneuver for power against each other. The crisis point will come this spring, when no obvious economic turn around will be on the horizon. Ukraine will more than likely split in two. The east/south will become a close satellite of Russia, while the west will struggle on. Whether this is peaceful or violent will depend directly on how much the West stays out of this. "

"Georgia

Unbelievably, Saakashvili will continue to cling to power through the first half of the year. Under Washington's prodding, in early spring, he will relaunch the war and than be removed in a coup by his former allies. Moscow's response will, more than likely, be to not stop until Tbilisi. What will follow next will depend on how strong Russia feels, how weak and slow the West's response is, but annexation is not out of the question."

Pravda's predictions for the Middle East are interesting too:

"Israel

Israel will face a protracted series of wars on its borders, primarily in Lebanon and Egypt's Sinai and Gaza. Syria will also attempt to start one in the Golan Heights but this will pitter out. Olmert will finally be put to pastor, in a nice jail cell as he stands corruption charges. Netanyahu will more than likely be president, and being a pragmatist, he will take a much closer position to Russia, as Washington's influence falls. Russia will be pressed further to stop sales to Arabs of weapons, in exchange for Israeli loyalty and investments. "

All quite possible but I think Olmert is more likely to put out to "pasture" than to "pastor", unless he is a closet Christian of course.


Read the sections on Pakistan and India and wonder if they make sense.

Read the sections on China and wonder how much is wishful thinking, although the last paragraph is believable:

"Either way, look for US/Chinese relations to be down right hostile by the end of 2009. Internally, China will suffer much instability and rioting, as hundreds of millions of unneeded factory workers are forced back into their dirt poor farming villages. Luckily for the Chinese authorities and no so luckily for the citizens, extreme violence is always a top option for China's authorities ad will be used often and to effect."

I found the section on Japan interesting as the angle is quite positive... why?

"Japan

While Japan's export base economy will suffer for the same reason the rest of the world is suffering, Japan still retains a strong, well educated and affluent society. Along with strict cultural cohesion and a high rate of savings, Japan will maintain much of its wealth. Protectionist measures have secured most of Japan's industry inside of Japan.

This, coupled with the weak US, will prompt Japan to recreate, albeit without war this time, a new Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, drawing into it's orbit various other local nations. Through 2009 there will be polite friction, as Japan pushes US influence out of central Pacific rim and south east Asia. As the dollar falls to hyper inflation, the Yen will be seen, by the second half of 2009, as the standard barer of Asian stability and success and will come to replace the dollar as the dominant power in that portion of the world.

Japan will see Russia as, at once, both a key energy supplier and trade partner and as a competitor to Asian domination, though a minor competitor. With China ripped by strife, Japan will have a free hand in Asia. "

All interesting stuff, no?

Gordon "Courage" Brown

The Sun has this morning had "a pop" at Gordon Brown. In a piece entitled "Where's Gord?" asks:

"WHEN David Cameron arrives in Georgia today he will be the first major British politician to visit the small, democratic country being systematically trashed by the mighty Russian bear.

Some will accuse him of being an opportunist. After all, what can he do to help solve the conflict? How many battalions does he command?

But at least the Tory leader is taking a strong stand against increasing Russian belligerence.

And this was made all the more urgent by last night’s chilling warning from a senior Russian general that Poland — a member of Nato — has become a nuclear target since daring to allow America to build an anti-missile system on its land.

This escalation in tension only makes the question more urgent: Where on earth are Gordon Brown and his Foreign Secretary David Miliband?

It was only AFTER the Tory leader had been on the airwaves on Monday that Mr Brown issued a brief statement.

And again on Tuesday the Prime Minister recorded a brief TV clip AFTER David Cameron had already spoken out at a televised press conference. That was almost FIVE DAYS after the conflict had begun.

The Government has been made to look weak. Not because of anything David Cameron has done, but because of what Downing Street HASN’T done.

It is reasonable to ask where our Prime Minister is . . .

As French President Nicolas Sarkozy flits between Moscow and the Georgian capital Tbilisi, hammering out a peace deal.

As German Chancellor Angela Merkel visits the two warring countries.

As American Secretary of State Condaleezza Rice races between European capitals and the region trying to rein in the out-of-control Russians.

As President Bush orders humanitarian supplies into beleaguered Georgia and makes daily statements from the White House Rose Garden.

We cannot imagine Tony Blair taking such a low key role if the old Cold War had threatened to rise from the grave during his watch.

He would have been the FIRST to rally our allies, the FIRST to order in aid, the FIRST to speak out against Russian aggression.

Gordon Brown has a reputation for dithering. He has added to it this week. And by doing so he has made David Cameron look like a credible leader.

It is time Mr Brown shook his reputed “clunking fist” in Russia’s face as it threatens the world’s peaceful and prosperous future."

I have highlighted the key sentence. It would appear that The Sun has decided that, as it has to be on the winning side at the next election, it must move from Labour and Gordon Brown to David Cameron and the Conservatives.

Oh those Russians - reprise

There were many limp brained lefties who excused Russia's invasion of Georgia because Georgia wanted to join NATO and the EU as though that was a good reason for one sovereign nation to invade another and kill many civilians and make over 100,000 people homeless. I wonder if they will now excuse Russia for threatening that

"Poland is making itself a target. This is 100 percent"

General Anatoly Nogovitsyn is reported as saying also that

"It becomes a target for attack. Such targets are destroyed as a first priority"

Apparently the General also said that Russia's military doctrine sanctions the use of nuclear weapons

"against the allies of countries having nuclear weapons if they in some way help them"

Strange the way that many lefties are ready to condemn the US for practically anything and yet excuse the Russians and Chinese for practically everything. Do they believe that Russia and China are in any way Socialist paradises? Surely all the evidence points to them being rather nasty totalitarian regimes. I suppose that so long as they are anti-America then they will get the unconditional support of many on the left in this country and elsewhere.

I suppose that we have enough Poles in this country to start a pretty decently manned Polish Air Force again.

Oh those Russians

I see that Russia's foreign minister has let slip that the world

"can forget about any talk about Georgia's territorial integrity."

And protests from the anti-war movement in the west comes there none...

Our Prime Minister is missing

Well how else can we explain how there can be a war in Europe and yet we hear not a peep from our courageous Prime Minister. We were told that Gordon Brown would still be in charge of the Government whilst on holiday in Southwold, does that statement hold true when he is away from the family in Scotland? What is happening in the upper echelons of this Labour government? Is there anything other than in-fighting and power struggles?

Gordon Brown keeps saying how concerned he is about oil prices so has he nothing to say about a war being fought on the borders of the EU over oil supplies?

Russia's invasion of Georgia and the reaction of the BBC

It's odd, when the US lead force invaded Iraq to rid the Country of Saddam Hussein the BBC was awash with "experts" and pundits explaining how this is all about oil. Yet when the Russians invade Georgia the word "oil" is not heard. Yet this invasion really is about oil.

In case you are not aware, Georgian oil can flow out of that country in two ways, either through Turkey and hence into Europe or through Russia. Putin wants to ensure that as much of the world's oil as possible flows through Russia's pipelines so he can have as much bargaining power and control over Europe's power supply. The Georgians know that their independence relies as much as anything on the continued use of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline, a pipeline that connects the Caspian Sea's oilfields to Baku, then to Tbilisi and finally onto the Haydar Aliyev oil Terminal in the Turkish port of Ceyhan. There is also the South Caucus pipeline that transports natural gas along a similar route.

The excuses for this war are less convincing than the truth, yet they are still made and believed by many. As the BBC endlessly reminds us, Georgia is considering joining NATO, a move that Russia considers provocative. The BBC seem to think that this "provocation" in some way excuses Russia so as to invade a sovereign country and kill hundreds of people. Georgia is also at the very early stage of discussions to join the EU, they have as much a claim to do so as Turkey, and that again is described as a threat to Russia.

My fears are that this is not a one-off; control over Georgia's oil so that it was all being pumped through the Russian system would mean that the next country on the list would be under threat and that country is probably Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan has the 11th largest oil reserves in the world and most of its oil currently flows through Russian pipelines, however a deal has been done to build a pipeline to and through China, and Russia is unlikely to allow that to happen.

There are many other interesting angles to the Georgian oil story; there is even an Israeli connection as it has been proposed that oil from the BTC pipeline may be transported to eastern Asia via the Israeli oil terminals at Ashkelon and Eilat

However the key point is that Putin wants all of those south and central Asian countries oil to be fed into the Russian system and so be under his control.

I heard someone on Radio 4's Question Time last night saying that this invasion was all the West's fault (especially the Americans) for being so triumphalist at the ending of the Cold War and by humiliating Russia. These are very similar to the excuses that were made in the early 1930s for Nazi Germany; Germany was humiliated after the First World War by the terms of the Treaty of Versailles and so it is understandable that they want to assert themselves and invade Austria, the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia etc.


What do I think will happen from here? I believe that Russia will not stop until they have control of Georgia's oil. The EU countries will do nothing other than protest gently, as they need Russian oil and gas and are scared of upsetting their supplier. The US will support the Georgian army by way of supplying them with ammunition and parts for the US equipped more modern part of their army but will not get involved militarily. Once Russia has control of Georgia's oil, Putin will look eastwards, if I was a government minister in Astana I would be very worried right now.

To reduce the West's dependence on Rusia I strongly believe that oil exploration in Alaska and the extraction of Canada's huge shale-oil reserves be made a priority. The West cannot rely on oil and gas supplied by mostly vile Middle Eastern dictatorships and a militarily resurgent Russia.