Listen to the people

Well that hasn't lasted very long has it? A round a month ago Gordon Brown said he wanted a "different kind of politics" this was after his team managed to ensure that no candidate gathered enough votes to stand against him. In case we all thought that Gordon meant to rule unopposed, he also said he would "listen and learn" and "to build trust in our democracy, I'm sure we need a more open form of dialogue with citizens and politicians to genuinely talk about problems and solutions... It is about a different type of politics, a more open and honest dialogue" - All quotations from the BBC.

It appears that listening to the people will not extend to the matter of the constitution European Treaty. Time after time over the past months I have read or heard that Tony Blair is desperate to avoid holding a referendum because he knows he would lose one. Excuse me, but if he knows he would lose a referendum then surely that is a very good reason not to do what the loss of a referendum would not allow him to do. Here are some examples of the sort of articles being written about this matter from The Guardian - "Britain was committed to a referendum on the constitution and is desperate to avoid holding one on its replacement", The Telegraph - "The trouble is that, in order to dish the Tories three years ago, Mr Blair promised a referendum on the constitution. Labour's election manifesto was unequivocal: "We will put it to the British people in a referendum and campaign wholeheartedly for a Yes vote...Mr Brown can read the polls as well as anyone else: he knows that, if a plebiscite were held, the Noes would have it. So he will begin his premiership with an unenviable choice: hold the referendum and be branded a loser, or drop it and be branded a liar."

When the Constitution was first proposed Tony Blair promised a referendum in order to forestall any divisions within the Labour Party, he was relieved of the duty to Carry one out (with the almost certain prospect of being defeated) by the French and Dutch voting against the Constitution in referendums. You can read here and here my previous thoughts on the Constitution's reappearance. Now he and Gordon Brown are in a bind, it is clear from what Angela Merkel has said that the plan is "to use different terminology without changing the legal substance for example with regard to the title of the treaty". Tony and Gordon have decided that the best plan is set out "red lines" that they will not allow to be crossed and therefore take the attention away from any other matters that they do allow through. I doubt that these red lines will prove to be quite so permanent as Tony and Gordon would have us believe now; here they are:
"First, we will not accept a treaty that allows the charter of fundamental rights to change UK law in any way." I am not sure how "fundamental rights" could not change UK law, but this is a nice legalese argument that Tony might pull the wool over our eyes to obscure what is happening.

"Second, we will not agree to something that replaces the role of British foreign policy and our foreign minister." The plan is to have a European Foreign Minister, as well as one for each country, not to replace as such so the wording here assures victory.

"Thirdly, we will not agree to give up our ability to control our common law and judicial and police system." This depends upon the definition of the word "control", currently we have to put into place EU legislation by passing it through our Parliament, it is accepted that over 70% of UK laws are passed as a result of EU legislation.

"And fourthly, we will not agree to anything that moves to qualified majority voting something that can have a big say in our own tax and benefit system. We must have the right in those circumstances to determine it by unanimity," Again the key phrase is "big say", we are being lined up to accept a small reduction in the planed EU powers so as to Allow Tony and Gordon to claim a victory.


Tony Blair has stated that "if we achieve those four objectives I defy people to say what it is that is supposed to be so fundamental that could require a referendum."


The EU Constitution was the brainchild of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing and he said to Le Monde that the European public was being led “to adopt, without knowing it, the proposals that we dare not present to them directly”. As the Financial Times commented recently "Although any new treaty will be streamlined and stripped of its title and constitutional flummery, most of Mr Giscard d’Estaing’s key elements will remain, including an EU president, foreign minister, smaller Commission, more majority voting and legal personality."

A FT/Harris European wide opinion poll recently reported the following:

1) A total of 75 per cent of Spaniards, 71 per cent of Germans, 69 per cent of Britons, 68 per cent of Italians and 64 per cent of French believe the treaty important enough to warrant a referendum.

2) Only 14 per cent of Britons supported the idea of a full time President

3) only Britain (41 per cent) supported the idea of European Foreign Minister

Meanwhile the Daily Express reports that "An opinion poll by ICM Research found that 80 per cent of voters want a say about Britain’s future in Europe, and only 15 per cent disagree."

Will Tony and Gordon grant us, the electorate, a referendum? As I have said above it seems unlikely, they will twist and turn to hide what is happening and try to gloss over what powers are being taken by Europe because they know they would lose a referendum.

Why will they do this? Tony has hopes of becoming the first elected (by the constituent European Governments) President of Europe. This is something that Nicolas Sarkozy has said would be a good thing. Would Tony Blair really sell out the Country so he can have more glory and so that Cherie can get back on the gravy train? What do you think? Gordon Brown is less of a Euro fanatic than Blair BUT he is desperate, so achingly desperate, to be Prime Minister that he would do practically anything to get (and keep) the title. He does not want to be Prime Minister until the next election, he wants to rule beyond, way beyond. It is being spun that Gordon Brown has promised a referendum on the Constitution Treaty, in fact he has only promised one if Tony Blair is unable to get a good deal for Britain in this week's summit of European leaders, Brown told GMTV on Tuesday that he was open to the idea of holding a referendum if Brussels win greater powers over key areas. This is all presentational bollocks and spin, there won't be a referendum because Tony and Gordon will claim, falsely, that their red lines have not been crossed, the UK will sign up for the Constitution Treaty.

What hopes do we have of preventing this from happening? As I see it, Rupert Murdoch's press could create a big fuss over Tony and Gordon sneaking the Constitution Treaty in by the back door, so maybe Gordon will promise some break-up of the BBC to satisfy and so forestall Rupert. The Conservative party could do more to oppose the Constitution Treaty but this would open up latent splits that would be brutally exposed by the Labour party and more importantly the BBC. UKIP could campaign harder but they are too prone to be dismissed by the BBC as "Little Englanders". It all looks very bleak, maybe we will have to be saved once again by one country holding and losing a referendum. Whatever happens it sure as heck isn't "listening to the people".