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Thursday 10 April 2008

The lifecycle of a bubble

We have been experiencing a housing price bubble and now we must suffer the downside.

Here is a graph that I found on Burning Our Money that might help explain the life-cycle of a bubble.





Where we are on the down-slope is hard to say but my money says that "denial" was from last summer to a few weeks back, we are now heading downwards but beware that "bull trap". That does of course mean that the "fear" present now is as nothing to what it will be come the end of the year. With a bit of "luck" the whole "blow off phase" will last until just after the last possible date that Gordon "Courage" Brown can hold an election and the Conservative party get to power with a housing market at rock bottom so that "the only way is up".


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