I have been considering what I would do if I were in Gordon Brown's shoes or those of the Labour party bigwigs - whoever they are now.
I think that if the local election results are as poor for Labour as I believe they will be then stand by for a Gordon Brown resignation and for Jack Straw to be finagled into the position of temporary Prime Minister pending a general election. Labour under Jack Straw can then lose the election by less than would be the case if fought in 2009/10 and also get out of power before the full reality of the economic situation really hits home.
If they limp on until 2010 the economy will be so bad that it is possible that they could suffer an electoral meltdown of unprecedented (in the UK) proportions. If they go soon they might manage to blame the coming depression (not recession, depression) at least partly on the Conservatives and hope to get back into power at the following general election.
As I have said before, I believe we are at a 1992 moment. At an election this year or early next the idea is to lose not win it. If the Conservatives under John Major had lost the 1992 election as many believed the party chiefs actually wanted to, then the ERM debacle would have been blamed on Labour and the Conservatives would have been re-elected in 1997.
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