How long will the recovery take?

The BBC report that:

"The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) sees total UK GDP falling 4.3% in 2009 before growing 1% in 2010 and 1.8% in 2011.... The research body sees income per head - GDP per capita - taking until March 2014 to return to the level it was in the first quarter of 2008, when the recession kicked in. "

Alex Masterley sees it differently:

"The research body sees income per head - GDP per capita - taking until March 2014 to return to the level it was in the first quarter of 2008.

Except that doesn’t mean you will be as well off. Assume that inflation runs at 2.5% for each of those 6 years and you will be 16% worse off than now.

It would take another 15 years of GDP growth at 1% higher than the rate of inflation to bring us back to the same GDP per capita in real terms, or 2034."

2014 or 2034? And that doesn't take into account the very real prospect of inflation much higher than 2.5% in the near future...