Sunday 2 May 2010
Poll Tracker - On the money
As I predicted earlier in the absence of the BBC including BPIX polls in their Poll Tracker the poll they chose as their most recent from last night's three referenced polls was indeed ICM's - that being the only poll that showed the Labour vote increasing. Interesting the Poll Tracker 'Poll of Polls' now shows Conservatives - 35%, Labour - 28%, LibDems - 28%. Figures that underplay the Conservatives latest figures. Does anyone know what formula the BBC use for this 'Poll of Polls' calculation? I presume it is some sort of running average, but over what period and how weighted?
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2 comments:
A prediction born of the BBC's predictability!
Thi is the explanation as to how the BBC obtains it's figure for the poll of polls.
BBC poll of polls
The BBC poll of polls uses the same methodology as the London School of Economics, known as the median smoothing method.
Looking at the five most recent polls it takes the middle value for each party, in other words, the value that means there are two figures higher and two figures lower.
The 'others' figure is taken by subtracting the results for the three main parties from 100.
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