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Saturday 25 September 2010

That was resounding

Round 1: David Miliband 37.78%, Ed Miliband 34.33% Diane Abbott eliminated
Round 2: David Miliband 38.89%, Ed Miliband 37.47%. Andy Burnham eliminated
Round 3: David Miliband 42.72%, Ed Miliband 41.26%, Ed Balls eliminated
Round 4: David Miliband 49.35%, Ed Miliband 50.65%. Ed Miliband wins.

So Ed Miliband wins the Labour leadership, beating his elder brother David, thanks to second preferences. On first preferences David beat Ed by 3.35%. Diane Abbott's votes went to Ed 3.14% and David 1.11%, Andy Burnham's votes split almost eavenly to David 3.83% and Ed 3.79% and Ed Balls's votes went to Ed 9.39% and to David 6.63%. So on a first past the post basis David Moribund would have won the Labour leadership but thanks to the second preferences of those consensual figures Dianne Abbot and Ed Balls, Ed Miliband emerges victorious.

I wonder if David Miliband is now regretting assisting Diane Abbot to get the required nominations to get through to the final stage?

It is odd how in leadership elections for the main opposition party the early favourite keeps on losing. This time Ed Miliband beats David Miliband. In the last three Conservative leadership elections (going backwards in time) David Cameron defeated David Davis, Ian Duncan Smith defeated Ken Clarke and William Hague defeated Kenneth Clarke & Michael Howard. Remember that Michael Howard won the Conservative leadership in 2003 unopposed, just as Gordon Brown did in 2007.

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