Thursday, 3 August 2017

Scientists know about climate change

As I sit in London watching the rain fall as it has for most of July, indeed as it did for much of many recent summers, I remember the certainty with which The Guardian reported in 2006 as fact that:
"Scientists know a lot about how events will unfold...which means that whatever we do, our climate destiny is fixed for the next few decades... Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground."
Scientists know... climate destiny is fixed... Rainfall will decline in the summer..." It's all rubbish folks; most of these scientists are not predicting based on science, they are designing science to fit the desired predictions.

What about the second part of what "scientists know"? "Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will because much of the water will run off the baked ground."
Shall we take a look at reservoir levels in the baked South of England, the area with the biggest potential water problem as demand increases year after year as a result, largely, of population growth? South East Water report the levels at their two largest reservoirs: Arlington Reservoir was 82.9% full on 31 July  (the last day they report levels), Ardingly Reservoir was 85.6%% full on the same date.

What about the South West maybe they are faring worse? Well South West Water are not as up to date as South East Water and they report data up until the week ending 23 July. They report percentage data for their five reservoirs: Roadford, Colliford, Wimbleball, Stithians and Burrator. The figures show that the average storage levels across these five reservoirs was 73.26%. As a comparison it was around 65% in 1995; water shortage getting worse? Does it look as though there are problems replenishing thirsty reservoirs because of the declining rainfall that scientists know about?

How about Severn Trent? They report that for at 31 July storage levels of 71.9%.

I could go on and on but I think that the pattern will be similar across most of the UK regions.

So how about The Environment Agency the body that is so certain about Climate Change that they confidently state on their web site:
"It's an inescapable fact: our planet is warming up. Records show that temperatures around the world have risen steadily since 1900...

Climate change is the biggest environmental challenge facing the world today. We know the Earth's climate does change naturally over a long timescale, but the overwhelming majority of the scientific community now accepts that human activities are causing significant, rapid changes to our climate.

Over the past century, global temperatures have risen - the 10 warmest years on record have all been since 1990. The contribution to global warming from human activity is linked to increases in the amounts of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. As the concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, less heat can escape from the atmosphere, making the Earth warmer. The main greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is released by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas.


What will happen if we do nothing?

The latest data tells us that some climate change is already inevitable, so we will need to adapt to its impacts. We must plan for more extreme weather conditions: wetter winters with an increased risk of floods, and hotter, drier summers that put pressure on water resources. Sea levels will also rise, increasing the risk of flooding around our coastline."
Maybe these are some of the scientists who know what's going to happen to the climate in the UK. After all they also seem to know that we are going to experience "wetter winters with an increased risk of floods, and hotter, drier summers that put pressure on water resources". Let's look at the Environment Agency's own figures...

The Environment Agency publish their Water Situation for England and Wales figures on a monthly basis but the latest that I can find is for June 2017 not July 2017:

'Rainfall totals for  June were above the long term average (LTA) for the month in most parts of the country and particularly high in parts of northern England. For England as a whole, the June rainfall total was 140% of the 1961-90 LTA.


Reservoir  stocks  decreased  at  the  majority  of reported  reservoirs  or  reservoir  groups.  Overall  reservoir  storage  for  England  is  83%  of  total  capacity,  a  small decrease compared to May.'

So after years of knowing that reservoirs would not be replenished by winter rains we have a situation, as the rain pours off my roof, overall reservoir storage at the end of June is at 83% of total capacity.

Scientists know? I think not.

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