A General Election in 2008?

I have been pondering this possibility for a while and Jan 1 seems a good time to publish. At the moment the political landscape looks poor for Gordon Brown but not yet terminally so. If the economy is about to nose-dive including house prices then the position will only get worse for Gordon Brown. An economic collapse would finish Gordon Brown's reputation off completely.

A possible tactic for Gordon Brown would be to go for a snap election to be held alongside the local elections on May 1, this would help get the Labour voters out and so reduce their losses in the local elections and maybe he could squeeze back albeit with a much reduced majority. Of course if the Conservatives did win the election it would be with a small majority at best and then Gordon Brown, New Labour and the BBC could try to pin the economic collapse on the Conservatives.

Ah but didn't Gordon Brown promise no election before 2009 in his interview with Andrew "poodle" Marr? Well no, he did leave some wriggle room - take a look at the transcript from the Andrew Marr show (my emphasis)

"ANDREW MARR: Before we leave the subject of election timing... For the benefit of clarity, since you are rejecting the idea of a mandate general election right at the beginning of your premiership, are you also rejecting the idea of a general election in next spring or next autumn? Can we at least have some clarity about the fact there's not going to be an election for a while?

GORDON BROWN: I think that's not likely that we'll have an election, because I want to get on with the business of governing.

ANDREW MARR: Not likely when, what's the period?

GORDON BROWN: Not likely this year, not likely whatever dates you were suggesting.

ANDREW MARR: Like next year?

...

ANDREW MARR: And can you, thinking about the next period, then at least reassure those people watching that unless there's some extraordinary cataclysm there will not be a general election called in 2008, even if a few opinion polls show you well ahead?

GORDON BROWN: Well that's unlikely, I've just said it's unlikely."


Unlikely...


I still think that it is unlikely that Gordon Brown will call an election, after all his decisiveness is hardly legendary BUT I think it more likely than it was in December.