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Thursday 15 May 2008

An interesting article on Gordon Brown's popularity or lack of it

From Sky News comes this article by Michael Thrasher (billed as an "Elections expert") entitled "Brown's Fall From Grace Is Spectactular". Take a read it is quite interesting...


"it is clear that Brown's fall from grace with the electorate is one of the most spectacular for a Prime Minister....

Immediately Brown took over in June 2007 the ratings moved positive, a repeat of the Thatcher/Major experience.

Major's early months benefited from the allied victory in the first Gulf war; Brown's by a strong performance in managing crises caused by the floods and foot and mouth.

But there the similarities end.

While Major had a cushion of positive ratings those for Brown were half as strong before the decline set in.

Moreover, the steepness of Brown's descent since calling off the talk about an early election resembles Major's fall from grace in autumn 1992.

Assuming that he remains in post Brown now has little time to bring his ratings back to where it is conceivable that he could lead his party to its fourth consecutive general election victory.

Of course it does not follow that positive ratings for the PM are a pre-requisite of victory but strongly negative ones will certainly signal defeat."

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