House Prices

I reported on Sunday that the latest YouGov poll reported that "More than a third of people – 36% – expect house prices to fall next year with 23% expecting a rise. In June, only 8% expected a fall and 61% thought prices would rise." I commented that the 23% were delusional.

I see from Financial Spread Betting that at least one spread betting firm has closed the book on the direction of house prices. "A pretty clear picture of a decisive shift in sentiment is emerging. John Austin, head of proprietary products at IG Index, says that because of this the firm's house price markets are currently suspended and it is only accepting bets to close existing positions. 'There has been such a run of stories in the press talking of meltdown in the housing market that the volume of sell-side business left us with no choice but to close our book to new business for the time being,' he explains."


As house prices have dropped between 3% and 6% over the last month, will anyone disagree with my long standing prediction of a 30% drop in house prices?