Predictions for 2010 - reality check

I made two sets of predictions at the end of 2009, so how did I do?

This set was split into three sections (actual outcome in italics):

'Five political predictions for 2010:
1. Gordon Brown will continue to try and create spurious and contrived dividing lines with the Conservatives, the BBC will assist by pushing the dividing lines - Yes but was a no-brainer
2. The election will be held on May 6 (along with the local elections) because Labour cannot afford to run two campaigns and this way they will maximise their vote in the council elections - It was
3. The pre-election leader's debates will produce a surprise win (in the view of opinion polls) for Gordon Brown - Thankfully I was wrong
4. The pre-election leader's debates will produce an increase in support for the Lib Dems - A big yes
5. Labour win the general election, postal votes being a key factor, and the protests about vote-rigging are dismissed as "losers' sour grapes" - I am sure there was vote-rigging but not enough to keep Labour in power, maybe enough to keep the Conservatives from an overall majority though

Five economic predictions for 2010:
1. With a Labour victory at the general election (see above) the UK's credit rating will drop from AAA and the resultant rise in interest rates will produce the second half of the 'W shaped' recession - Interest rate rise looks like being in early 2011 not late 2010 and I see a second dip in GDP
2. The re-election of a Labour government will mean that the exodus of bankers and other financial institutions to more financially friendly locations - No Labour victory but the state of the UK economy and the move to higher taxation could still mean this happening in 2011
3. The ever larger hole in the Treasury's tax receipts will mean that the higher rate of income tax rises to 60% and VAT to 20% - Right on VAT if not Income Tax, yet
4. The Pound will reach parity with the Euro and the price for IMF and EU assistance for the "sick man of Europe" will be joining the Euro. Being at parity will make this an easier sell for Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson - The Euro countries weakened before the UK, to a large degree because Labour did not win the election
5. Having dropped to around USD 1,100 at the end of 2009; gold will rise ever higher, reaching USD 1500 by the end of the 2010 - Closed New Years Eve at around $1,410 - not quite and I am surprised

Five BBC related predictions for 2010:
1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - Right and right
2. The tone of the BBC's leader's debate will be clearly pro-Labour, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - Right and right
3. The BBC will minimise their coverage of the postal voting scandal (see above), the Conservatives will finally realise how serious this BBC bias is but it will be too late - Right
4. The BBC will continue to push for the withdrawal of British armed forces from Afghanistan - Right
5. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in the coming further military attacks on Israel - Right'

I make that 3/5 on politics, 0.5/5 on economics (with an extra point just delayed) and 5/5 on the BBC.


I also made 10 Miscellaneous predictions how did I fare?

1. An Islamic jihadist attack will succeed and hundreds will die but still 'the West' will not acknowledge the reality of the threat - No single attack was that large but cumulatively much larger
2. Iran will test a nuclear device and the UN will still pretend that they pose no threat to Israel or anyone else - Not quite, but will do soon
3. The Man Made Climate Change religion will increase its hold on the western world's politics and the 'warmists' will make holding 'deniers' views even more difficult - Interesting; whilst the 'warmist' hold on power and opinion has tightened, a larger proportion of the public seem to be realising that all is not as they are being told
4. Microsoft will release Office 2010 to replace Office 2007 but most businesses will still stick with Office 2003 - Obviously
5. Nigel Farage will beat John Bercow to take his Buckingham seat - Unfortunately not
6. Matt Smith's portrayal of The Doctor will not match up to David Tennant's - Still open to debate but I think Matt Smith has been a very good Doctor so far
7. The Big Brother team will engineer a 'controversy' for the final series, I won't care - Did they, I didn't pay it any attention?
8. England will not win the World Cup - Easy point
9. Andy Murray will not win the Wimbledon title - Another easy point
10. NotaSheep will continue to blog - Despite a wobble or two, I have done so

I make that 5 correct and 1 sort of, so 6/10 - that's an A* now isn't it?

Predictions for 2011 to follow...