A general election within 12 months?

I know the Barnsley by-election was just one result but it was a dreadful one for the Lib Dems and there are going to be hundreds of nervous Lib Dem councillors dreading the May local elections. The coalition is unpopular and will get more unpopular as the, necessary because of Labour profligacy, cuts start to bite. The Conservative vote will diminish but the core vote will stay, unless that increase in the UKIP vote does indicate that many real Conservatives fear that David Cameron is too happy being a Liberal conservative and want some real bite to their Conservatism. The issue of the EU may also be moving from way down the list for most people to nearer the top and as such UKIP's appeal will grow. Pre the 2010 general election I called for a Conservative/UKIP alliance as the best way to ensure a proper right of centre government in the UK and who can really argue that the Conservative LibDem coalition is more coherent than a Conservative UKIP government would have been? David Cameron has a problem with the rise of UKIP in that he cannot become more EUsceptic without alienating his 'partners' in the coalition who are mostly EUphiles. I foresee trouble ahead for David Cameron from his EUsceptic wing and for the LibDem leadership from their non-Orange Book members. I think that traditional Tory loyalty will allow David Cameron some more breathing space but Nick Cleg will not be so fortunate. I give it until the day after the local elections before Nick Clegg faces open revolt from large parts of his party and not too much longer before he will have to decide whether to withdraw from the coalition and so precipitate a general election of split his party.

Interesting times lie ahead and it could mean that the party whose reckless spending and incompetence in government caused the economic crisis that we are embroiled in could be back in power before the second anniversary of losing it; scary thought!