When will it stop raining?

As I woke up to the sound of falling rain for another August morning, I wondered when the last week without rain was this 'summer'. Then I remembered this post of mine from July 2009:

'As I sit in London watching the rain fall as it has for the last few July days, indeed as it did for much of the summers of 2007 and 2008, I remember the certainty with which The Guardian reported in 2006 as fact that:

"Scientists know a lot about how events will unfold...which means that whatever we do, our climate destiny is fixed for the next few decades... Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground."

Scientists know... climate destiny is fixed... Rainfall will decline in the summer..." It's all rubbish folks; most of these scientists are not predicting based on science, they are designing science to fit the desired predictions.

What about the second part of what "scientists know"? "Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will because much of the water will run off the baked ground."

Shall we take a look at reservoir levels in the baked South of England, the area with the biggest water problem? South East Water report the levels at their two largest reservoirs: Arlington Reservoir was 89% full on 16 June (the last day they report levels), Ardingly Reservoir was just under 97% full on the same date.

What about the South West maybe they are faring worse? Well South West Water are somewhat more up to date than South East Water and they report data up until the week ending 19 July, well done South West Water. They report percentage data for their five reservoirs: Roadford, Colliford, Wimbleball, Stithians and Burrator. The figures show that the average storage levels across these five reservoirs was 88.7%. As a comparison it was around 65% in 1995; water shortage getting worse? Does it look as though there are problems replenishing thirsty reservoirs because of the declining rainfall that scientists know about?

How about Severn Trent? They report that for July - "Current water storage levels in the Severn Trent region are at 87.3% of capacity".

I could go on and on but I think that the pattern will be similar across most of the UK regions.

So how about The Environment Agency the body that is so certain about Climate Change that they confidently state on their web site:

"It's an inescapable fact: our planet is warming up. Records show that temperatures around the world have risen steadily since 1900...

Climate change is the biggest environmental challenge facing the world today. We know the Earth's climate does change naturally over a long timescale, but the overwhelming majority of the scientific community now accepts that human activities are causing significant, rapid changes to our climate.

Over the past century, global temperatures have risen - the 10 warmest years on record have all been since 1990. The contribution to global warming from human activity is linked to increases in the amounts of heat-trapping "greenhouse gases" in the atmosphere. As the concentrations of greenhouse gases increase, less heat can escape from the atmosphere, making the Earth warmer. The main greenhouse gas is carbon dioxide, which is released by burning fossil fuels like coal, oil and natural gas.

...

What will happen if we do nothing?

The latest data tells us that some climate change is already inevitable, so we will need to adapt to its impacts. We must plan for more extreme weather conditions: wetter winters with an increased risk of floods, and hotter, drier summers that put pressure on water resources. Sea levels will also rise, increasing the risk of flooding around our coastline."

Maybe these are some of the scientists who know what's going to happen to the climate in the UK. After all they also seem to know that we are going to experience "wetter winters with an increased risk of floods, and hotter, drier summers that put pressure on water resources". Let's look at the Environment Agency's own figures...

The Environment Agency publish their Water Situation for England and Wales figures on a monthly basis so the latest report is for June and tells us that:

"At the end of June stocks were normal or higher for the time of year at three quarters of reservoir or reservoir groups. Stocks at six reservoirs were below normal and notably low at one reservoir (Vyrnwy)."

So after years of knowing that reservoirs would not be replenished by winter rains we have a situation, as the rain pours off my roof, where three quarters of UK reservoirs have higher than normal stocks...

Scientists know? I think not.'

Last summer seemed barely drier than 2009 and this summer, well the NotaSheep barbecue has not even been taken out of its cover. I looked at the Environment Agency website and the last entry is from last week:

'Current situation

Last updated - 18 August 2011

Lincolnshire, Cambridgeshire, parts of Bedfordshire and Northamptonshire, and west Norfolk remain in drought. Anglian Water and Cambridge Water have said that there is no threat to public water supply as they have enough to last the summer.

August’s weather has been a mixture of sunshine and showers. The forecast for the weekend predicts some rain on Saturday but drier conditions on Sunday for many parts of the country.

Rivers in northern England responded to the heavy rainfall last week and most are above average for the time of year.

Only the River Coln in the Thames Valley and River Don in South Yorkshire are now exceptionally low for the time of year.

In summary current impacts of the drought are:

* we moved 250 brown trout from the River TarrantStour;
* we rescued trout and hundreds of native crayfish from the River Redlake (Shropshire) on 28 July, because the river was drying up;
* boaters on the Grand Union Canal and Oxford Canal face restrictions on movement through certain locks to help conserve water;
* Severn Trent Water confirmed that there will be no restrictions this summer.

Rainfall in July has helped to stabilise water resources but this hasn't been enough to end the drought and the environment and farmers are still affected. Further dry weather will increase pressure on water resources and we may have to apply formal restrictions on farmers who spray irrigate in the drought-affected areas.'

I wonder if the rain over the last few weeks has upset their drought warnings. As with the BBC there seem to be a lot of publicly funded agencies and organisations who have so much credibility, money and time invested in the promotion of the Man Made Global warming hypothesis that they cannot admit that they were wrong.

Let's look at some facts. In the South East the Arlington Reservoir is currently showing:

Water Level Check
Date: 24 August 2011
Time: 00:00:00
Present Capacity (million litres): 2200
Capacity when full (million litres): 3546

62% full in 'high summer'

Ardingly Reservoir is showing:

Water Level Check
Date: 24 August 2011
Time: 00:00:00
Present Capacity (million litres): 3052
Capacity when full (million litres): 4707

65% full in 'high summer'

What about in East Anglia where drought conditions most frequently apply in the UK. Anglian Water report:

'Reservoir levels

The rainfall for July was a little above the long term average for the region. Overall our reservoirs are 82% full, which is below average but within their normal operating range. Groundwater levels are below average for the time of year. Although we do not currently anticipate the need for any restrictions, we ask all our customers to remain ‘Waterwise’, whatever the weather.'

Anglian Water also include some helpful graphs...

So we see that average rainfall has been at roughly long term levels over an annual period. More interesting us the second graph for it shows that in 1996 to 1998 reservoir levels fell close to 60%, this was the height of the Global Warming scare and since then they have been above (or close to) 80% in all but one year. As for drought conditions, I think not.


So there we have it; in 2006 The Guardian reported wit great certainty that:

'Scientists know a lot about how events will unfold...which means that whatever we do, our climate destiny is fixed for the next few decades... Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground.'

Facts show that since then the summers have been wetter, droughts have been less common and that clearly they were wrong. Will any of these scientists apologise or even explain their error? Will The Guardian refer back to that 2006 article and explain why they have not retracted the prediction they were happy to allow to be made in 2006?