Science or scaremongering

In 2006 predictions were made of a bad hurricane season to follow on from 2005's Katrina etc. The predictions did not come true so before the 2007 hurricane season started, more dire predictions were made

"Experts are again predicting a busy Atlantic hurricane season, with up to 17 named tropical storms forming - nine of which could become hurricanes. At least one major storm is expected to make landfall in the US during the 1 June-30 November season, Colorado State University forecasters said... the record-breaking 2005 season saw 15 hurricanes, including Katrina which devastated New Orleans. Another forecaster, London-based Tropical Storm Risk, has likewise predicted 17 tropical storms, nine of them hurricanes, for the 2007 season. "We have increased our forecast for the 2007 hurricane season, largely due to the rapid dissipation of El Nino conditions," Colorado experts Philip Klotzbach and William Gray said in a statement. "We are now calling for a very active hurricane season. Landfall probabilities for the 2007 hurricane season are well above their long-period averages," they said."

I was almost put off my Caribbean holiday but then I remembered last year's predictions and went anyway; beautiful weather and a lack of strong winds, let alone hurricanes.

The Atlantic hurricane season has just ended and the news is not good for the doom-mongerers. In October the BBC were reporting that "Update on the Atlantic Hurricane Season by Steph Ball
At the start of the year the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued their pre-season predictions of an active 2007 hurricane season. They predicted a total of 13-17 storms, with 7 -10 becoming hurricanes, of which 3-5 would be major hurricanes.

The season was late in spawning any hurricanes, with Dean the first to develop mid-August. Dean became a Category 5 hurricane and went on to make landfall at that strength along Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on August 21st.

September saw activity increasing with eight tropical storms being named, three of which became hurricanes, though only Hurricane Felix strengthened into a major storm. This amount of storms was above average for September and equalled 2002 for the record for the most storms forming during the month. However the National Hurricane Centre in its September summary, using its own measure of combined strength and duration, classed it as below average. This was because most of the storms were relatively short-lived.

So far October has seen no storm activity. The 2006 season saw no activity after the 3rd October though this was put down to a strengthening El Niño. The year was a relatively quiet one with no hurricanes making landfall at all in the US.

At present the number of hurricanes spawned is below that predicted. However with the season running until the end of November, there is still the chance we will see a further upsurge in activity."

You can almost hear the desperation in the writer as he writes "there is still the chance we will see a further upsurge in activity."


Of course come the end of the hurricane season, the news for the "we need a disaster" brigade was no better:

"Hurricane season – quiet for the US but not for others by Steph Ball
On Friday the Atlantic hurricane season draws to an end and the United States will be able to breathe a sigh of relief, as they escape with a second mild year.

At the start of the year it was forecast that the 2007 season would be an above-average season, with 17 storms and up to 7 to 10 of these going on to become hurricanes. Instead, 14 storms were spawned, 6 of which reached hurricane status.

Two of these were major hurricanes, Dean and Felix, which went on to make history. It was the first time since records began in 1851, that two Atlantic hurricanes had made landfall in the same season as Category 5 storms. Category 5 is the highest strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale.

While the US may have escaped with little impact this year, Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean have not been so lucky. More than 200 people were killed with almost four billion dollars of damage caused, often across already impoverished communities. Hurricane Dean roared across the Caribbean in August, making landfall on the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Felix followed early September leaving over a hundred dead as it struck the northeast of Nicaragua.

2006 was itself a quiet year with no hurricanes making landfall in the US at all. Both years have been a far cry from 2005 which still echoes from the devastation caused by Hurricane Katrina."



For a more reasoned view of the hurricane season than that offered by the BBC try Climate Audit.