The Speaker election

First round results:
Stay in:
John Bercow 179
Sir George Young 112
Margaret Beckett 74
Sir Alan Haselhurst 66
Sir Alan Beith 55
Anne Widdecombe 44

Probably Drop out as less than 5%:
Parmjit Dhanda 26
Richard Shepherd 15
Sir Patrick Cormack 13
Sir Michael Lord 9

No huge surprises in the order but Margaret Beckett seems to have received fewer votes than I expected and Sir George Young more. John Bercow got 30% of the vote and unless there is a tactical switch by Margaret Beckett's supporters at an early stage to prevent Sir George Young winning then I expect Sir Alan Beith and Anne Widdecombe to drop out next. If Margaret Beckett's supporters do work this tactical switch then John Bercow would have 42% add in 20 or so from those who dropped out and he's at 46%, so at least one more round looks necessary.

Now who will get the four dropped out candidates votes? I would imagine that a high proportion of Sir Michael Lord and Sir Patrick Cormack's votes will move to Sir Alan Haselhurst or Sir George Young. Ricahrd Shepherd's supporters are harder to predict as are Parmjit Dhanda's.

When Sir Alan Beith and Anne Widdecombe drop out I expect Sir George Young to pick up more votes than Margaret Beckett or John Bercow.