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Friday 2 November 2012

That's odd, I thought sciemtists knew differently

The BBC in a piece by their 'Environment analyst' Roger Harrabin report that:
'Soaking Britain may be in for a new bout of flooding in coming months, the Environment Agency has warned. Rivers are full after the wettest April to June on record, followed by more rain in July, September and October. The earth is saturated and in many areas there is no more space left in aquifers to store water that seeps through from the surface. The agency warn that people should be ready for floods even with relatively small amounts of rain. They warn of increased risk of river flooding in November and December, especially in the south-west and northern and western parts of England and Wales. Devon, Dorset and Hampshire are also vulnerable to flooding from water coming up through the soaking ground because groundwater in aquifers moves much more slowly than surface water, and will take more time to flow away underground. Sarah Jackson, the Met Office's chief adviser to the Government, said: "We are heading into the winter period which is traditionally the wetter period of the year in the UK. "Because the ground is so wet, if we do have any prolonged heavy rainfall in any part of the country, there is going to be heightened risk of flooding." The agency said more than 1.1 million people are signed up to receive its flood warnings - which can be sent by email, text, or a message to a landline or mobile phone.'
How peculiar because it was only six years ago that the BBC's print arm, The Guardian, reported as fact that:
'Scientists know a lot about how events will unfold...which means that whatever we do, our climate destiny is fixed for the next few decades... Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground.'

Scientists know, not predict but know. Rainfall will decline in the summer, no room for doubt there. The UK's Environment Agency are still telling us to prepare for climate change because:
'largest reductions in summer precipitation of 40 per cent (central estimate) are to be seen in the far south of England. A decrease of 65 per cent is indicated at the 10th percentile with a 6 per cent decrease at the 90th percentile)'
Meanwhile on their front page the worry is flooding. In case the Environment Agency decide to 'amend' their website, here's a screen grab...
Will any of these scientists apologise or even explain their error? Will The Guardian refer back to that 2006 article and explain why they have not retracted the prediction they were happy to allow to be made in 2006?

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