November 1 General Election

NotaSheep, I am often asked, will Gordon Brown call an election in November? Up until last weekend, the answer was, yes - now leave me alone I want to graze and I have a blog to update. Now the picture looks less clear, The positive coverage of the Conservative Party Conference by most of the UK media, obviously not the Labour Party in-house broadcasting service (otherwise known as the BBC) has I believe rattled Gordon Brown. He will be looking at the headline opinion poll figures this weekend as well as private polling from key marginals and if the headline polls show a 10 pint or greater lead and the marginals are not too far adrift he will call the election. However if the headline opinion poll lead is nearer 7%, I doubt it will be less than that, and the polls of the marginals show any leakage of the Labour vote, then Prudence Brown will revert to cowardly type and will find a reason not call an election.

The question in Gordon Brown's "mind" will then be how to row back from calling a General Election. Increased measures against foot and mouth could make it impossible to hold an election (as in 2001), people missing off of the election roll could provide an excuse. Gordon Brown could try many excuses but the bottom line will be that he is scared of losing. Gordon Brown was being pushed by his young'ish advisers to hold a snap election as they argued he was a dead cert to win it. Gordon wanted to believe in this advice and thought it would make him look decisive and strong. Now he is not sure that the advice was good but has the pre-election fever gotten out of hand?

For what it is worth, I do not believe that the Conservatives can win this election, become the largest party in any new Parliament or even force Gordon Brown into minority government. The best the Conservatives can hope for is to leave Gordon Brown with a very small overall majority and so to limp on as a damaged Prime Minister for a few years as his Ponzi Scheme economy crashes around him, utterly destroying his reputation for competence. As I have blogged before, just like 1992, this is the General Election to lose.

I hope that the polls do move in the direction of the Conservatives but only by a few percentage points, that the private polling is inconclusive and that as a result Gordon Brown has a really stressful and horrible weekend. I further hope that he decides not to risk calling an election and suffers the justified derision of the British public as a result. I for one can hardly wait to see "The Great Clunking Fist" shown for what he really is...