Alistair Darling the great prophet?

The Number 10 website still has up the transcript of Alistair Darling's webchat of 9 March 2007, here are some extracts:

"Peter Robinson: What do you think will be the greatest challenges facing the UK economy over the next 5 years?

Alistair replies:

The biggest challenge we face is how to adapt to a rapidly changing global economy. Changes as profound as those of the industrial revolution of 200 years ago are now taking place over 20 years. China and India and other developing countries are seeing rapid growth which we should welcome.

But it is important that we continue to compete successfully in this new world. And we have a lot to be proud of. Our financial services industry for example is recognised as being a world leader. But in other areas too, like pharmaceuticals, aerospace and in the new technologies, we have a worldwide reputation for excellence.

The key is to embrace this change and see it as an opportunity. We can and do compete with the best in the world."

"Alistair replies: I said that we have a strong manufacturing sector. But you are right the service sector is extremely important and employs millions of people. The financial services sector is of huge importance not just in London but in Edinburgh, Leeds and Birmingham for example. "

"Linda Walker: There is an economic slowdown in the US and Asia - can we escape the fall-out?

Alistair replies: The OECD expects the world economy to grow despite slow downs in some countries. Of course as I said earlier economies are increasingly interdependent but the UK economy has seen the longest period of uninterrupted growth over the last 10 years. This is despite the fact that during the same period other large economies went into periods of recession, which because of the strength of our economy, and our macro-economic policies, the UK has been able to withstand. And of course increased trade and avoiding protectionism is the key to continued growth in world trade."

Today The Mail reports that:

" A major recession will take hold of Britain next year, the International Monetary Fund has warned.

Leaked figures showed that the world is heading for a 'major downturn' and that the UK will be one of the biggest casualties.

IMF staff have downgraded their economic forecasts for nations across the world and dramatically increased estimates of the total losses to be inflicted by the sub-prime mortgage crisis which started in the U.S.

Among the advanced economies, Britain will suffer the most as it enters its first recession since the early 1990s, according to IMF forecasts."

Comments Mr Darling? Or would you rather pass this one up to Gordon Brown or Peter Mandelson?