Intelligent bookmaking?

The Paddy Power bookmakers have announced that:

"it would pay out early more than 1 million euros (782,776 pounds) on bets that Barack Obama will be the next U.S. president, three weeks ahead of the election.

The Dublin-based bookmaker said it made the "unprecedented decision" to pay on bets taken so far, following Wednesday's final campaign debate between Obama and his Republican rival John McCain, which polls judged the Democrat to have won.

"We declare this race well and truly over and congratulate all those who backed Obama," Power said.

"Although he seemed a little out of sorts in last night's final debate we believe he has done more than enough to get him across the line on November 4."

The bookmaker said the overall betting trend had shown "one- way traffic" for the Illinois senator since the start of the summer, with odds shortening to 1-9, meaning a bet of 9 euros is required to make 1 euro profit.

Power said it had taken more than 10,000 bets on the 2008 U.S. presidential election, the majority in support of Obama.

In June a wager of 100,000 euros was placed on Obama to win at odds of 1-2, yielding a payout of 150,000 euros, it added..."

Bookmakers don't pay out for no reason do they, so they must be sure that Barack Obama is going to win the election, mustn't they? Well Paddy Power were also sure that the Irish EU Referendum was going to be a "Yes" vote and so paid out on the night of the count, before the votes were counted; that was a good move as the Irish vote was in fact a "No".

Two questions (and probable answers) come to my mind:
1. Are Paddy Power heading for another embarrassing volte face? (Maybe, but probably not)
2. Why do Paddy Power keep declaring these early "results"? (Publicity, obviously)


As to what effect will the publicity for Paddy Power's early declaration have? It is rather hard to say, it could go either way; maybe Obama/Biden supporters will get complacent and not turn out to vote or maybe McCain/Palin supporters will get dispirited and not bother to vote or maybe McCain/Palin supporters will be energised to fight back and vote or ............ We will know soon enough.