Two months on...

On 31 December 2009 I made some predictions, I thought I'd see how they were coming along...

Five political predictions for 2010:
1. Gordon Brown will continue to try and create spurious and contrived dividing lines with the Conservatives, the BBC will assist by pushing the dividing lines - YES
2. The election will be held on May 6 (along with the local elections) because Labour cannot afford to run two campaigns and this way they will maximise their vote in the council elections - Unresolved but still looking likely
3. The pre-election leader's debates will produce a surprise win (in the view of opinion polls) for Gordon Brown - Unresolved
4. The pre-election leader's debates will produce an increase in support for the Lib Dems - Unresolved
5. Labour win the general election, postal votes being a key factor, and the protests about vote-rigging are dismissed as "losers' sour grapes" - Unresolved

Five economic predictions for 2010:
1. With a Labour victory at the general election (see above) the UK's credit rating will drop from AAA and the resultant rise in interest rates will produce the second half of the 'W shaped' recession - UK credit rating already diminished?
2. The re-election of a Labour government will mean that the exodus of bankers and other financial institutions to more financially friendly locations - Unresolved
3. The ever larger hole in the Treasury's tax receipts will mean that the higher rate of income tax rises to 60% and VAT to 20% - VAT to 20% is already being trailed, anyone want to bet on tax not moving higher?
4. The Pound will reach parity with the Euro and the price for IMF and EU assistance for the "sick man of Europe" will be joining the Euro. Being at parity will make this an easier sell for Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson - Sterling is on the slide even as I write
5. Having dropped to around USD 1,100 at the end of 2009; gold will rise ever higher, reaching USD 1500 by the end of the 2010 - I still believe this and am surprised gold has stuck around USD 1,100 for so long

Five BBC related predictions for 2010:
1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - YES
2. The tone of the BBC's leader's debate will be clearly pro-Labour, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - Unresolved
3. The BBC will minimise their coverage of the postal voting scandal (see above), the Conservatives will finally realise how serious this BBC bias is but it will be too late - Unresolved
4. The BBC will continue to push for the withdrawal of British armed forces from Afghanistan - YES
5. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in the coming further military attacks on Israel - YES


Coming along nicely...