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Tuesday, 20 April 2010

Excusing the bad inflation figures

Once again the BBC report bad economic news with excuses, something I do not remember them doing when a conservative government was in power, but then there is an election to be saved for Labour.

The reality is a 3.4 per cent rise in the Consumer Prices Index (CPI) and the Retail Prices Index (RPI) - which includes the cost of mortgages and housing - reaching 4.4 per cent, which is the highest for that measure since September 2008.


Still to come this week are the latest statistics on unemployment, retail sales and borrowing figures for the last full financial year and then on Friday (but Thursday for Gordon Brown so he has the figures before the second leaders' debate) the first official estimate of first quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

In the next few weeks people will see their take home pay drop as a result of Gordon Brown’s decision to freeze tax allowances. And if anyone is thinking of voting LibDem remember that a hung Parliament is likely to lead to an even weaker pound and higher inflation, with the concomitant risk of higher interest rates to tackle it.

I am not alone in predicting this, James Hughes, chief economist at Black Swan Capital wealth management, said:
"The UK economy has some very deep, fundamental problems that won’t be solved simply by installing a new government, and this sharp increase in UK inflation to 3.4 per cent is possibly just the start of an inevitable and unstoppable slide towards double-digit inflation and interest rates within the next few years."


Gordon Brown's legacy like that of the Wilson/Callaghan/Healey government will be inflation, debt and despair - "Things can only get better" - REALLY?

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