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Friday 16 April 2010

The fallout from the first Leaders' debate (part 1)

So as I predicted Nick Clegg gained hugely from the first leaders' debate and from the way that Gordon Brown was cosying up to Nick Clegg during the debate and the way that Peter Mandelson was 'bigging up' Nick Clegg in interviews afterwards it would seem that the Lib-Lab pact is up and running already.

It would seem that the Labour leadership have done their calculations and realised that the guff about narrowing polls was just guff and that the larger swing in the marginals would be enough to give the Conservatives a working majority. So 'plan B' it had to be; 'plan B' being boosting the Lib Dems to ensure that Labour and the Lib Dems could form a government, change the voting system and so ensure a perpetual left of centre government in the UK. First readings seem to show that the Lib Dems have indeed been boosted but what if they are boosted too much?

Will the Lib Dems gain as much as the initial polls record? If the Lib Dems do gain will it be at the expense of the Conservatives in the south and west or Labour in the north?
The Labour calculation must be that disenchanted Labour voters would rather move to the Lib Dems than the Conservatives, are they right?
What if the Lib Dem voters who voted Labour in 1997, 2001 & 2005 so as to keep the Conservatives out as the Lib Dems couldn't win, now decide to vote Lib Dem; what might that do to the number of Labour MPs returned to Parliament?
I wonder what Labour MPs in Labour/Lib Dem marginals think of this tactic; do they like being thought of as expendable in the great war against the Tories?

Lots of questions there, but tomorrow an alternative theory from the more paranoid side of NotaSheep's brain...





Political Betting speculate that: 'Reports are buzzing about that the Lib Dems have moved into second place in a poll due out tonight. I assume it is YouGov - no doubt we will find out soon.'

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