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Monday, 29 November 2010

Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Belgium, Spain... but is there more to worry about?

Following on from my last piece, I have somewhat less humorous news about EU debt. The consensus view is that the EU countries that are in real trouble and have or will soon have to ask for (or have forced upon them) bail-outs are Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, Belgium and Spain; but is there more to worry about? Yes the UK is often mooted as next in line but what about Germany? Germany's debt problems were not too large but these bail-outs might be an issue for them. As The Telegraph reports:
'Credit default swaps (CDS) measuring risk on German, French and Dutch bonds have surged over recent days, rising significantly above the levels of non-EMU states in Scandinavia.

"Germany cannot keep paying for bail-outs without going bankrupt itself," said Professor Wilhelm Hankel, of Frankfurt University. "This is frightening people. You cannot find a bank safe deposit box in Germany because every single one has already been taken and stuffed with gold and silver. It is like an underground Switzerland within our borders. People have terrible memories of 1948 and 1923 when they lost their savings."

The refrain was picked up this week by German finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble. "We're not swimming in money, we're drowning in debts," he told the Bundestag.

While Germany's public and private debt is not extreme, it is very high for a country on the cusp of an acute ageing crisis. Adjusted for demographics, Germany is already one of the most indebted nations in the world.

Reports that EU officials are hatching plans to double the size of EU's €440bn (£373bn) rescue mechanism have inevitably caused outrage in Germany. Brussels has denied the claims, but the story has refused to die precisely because markets know the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) cannot cope with the all too possible event of a triple bail-out for Ireland, Portugal and Spain. '
Read the whole piece and ask yourselves how on earth do we all get out of this mess? I really don't see a way, it looks like doom and disaster all the way to me.

2 comments:

Alex said...

Easy. All public sector workers, all welfare recipients, all government contracts take an immediate 20% reduction and all our problems will disappear. Same everywehere in Europe.

Heather said...

"I really don't see a way, it looks like doom and disaster all the way to me. "

Rather

"I really don't see an EASY way, it looks like doom and disaster all the way to me.

There is a way, but within lies a big probability of EU being destroyed in process...so, yeah, impeding doom.