Are we in a "bear market" yet

The standard definition of a "bear market" is a market where the market price is at least 20% below a recent high. The FTSE 100 closed at 6,721.60 on 31 October 2007 so for a "bear market" to be declared I calculate the FTSE will have to reach 5,377.28; as of 14:45 this afternoon it is trading at 5,472.50, not far to go... and it will get there and fall a lot further too.

I see that just before 10:00 this morning the FTSE hit 5,358.70, so I guess that means we are in a "bear market", and may the FTSE have mercy on our wallets.

Quelle surprise

From the FT "The core eurozone countries – Germany, France and Italy – find it difficult to reform when times are bad. Invariably, governments intervene to protect voters from the downturn. Worse, these countries also find it hard to reform in good times. Governments often confuse a cyclical upturn with a secular improvement, and ease up on necessary but uncomfortable reforms."

That explains a lot about the lack of European reform, doesn't it?


The article continues "Thankfully, 2008 promises to be neither particularly bad nor good for the eurozone. It is therefore a propitious moment in both econ?omic and electoral cycles to deliver on reform. It is true the fallout from the credit crisis, the strong euro and high energy prices will make life trickier for exporters and governments. But the eurozone economy is still growing around trend. Many economists expect this to continue into 2008 – albeit with some softening in mid-year."

A touch optimistic I feel, both in terms of the chances of reform and the prospects for the Euro Zone economies. Mind you the FT's pro-EU bias means that I rarely read it, except for on holiday when I run out of proper newspapers and have to move onto Mrs NotaSheep's papers.