More about those upcoming power cuts, I did warn you back in September 2009

'I have been "banging on" for some years now about the upcoming shortage in power generation in the UK and the resulting power cuts. My warnings, like those re houses being over valued, were met with the usual "oh it's NotaSheep being his usual pessimistic self". This morning The Telegraph reports that:

"Britain is facing the prospect of widespread power cuts for the first time since the 1970s, government projections show.

Demand for power from homes and businesses will exceed supply from the national grid within eight years, according to official figures.

...

The gap between Britain’s energy needs and demand throws fresh doubt on the Government’s assertion that renewable energy can make up for dwindling nuclear and coal capabilities.

Over the next 10 years, one third of Britain’s power-generating capacity needs to be replaced with cleaner fuels. But last night the Conservatives said that Labour had refused to face up to the problem.

The admission that Britain will face power-cuts is contained in a document that accompanied the Government’s Low Carbon Transition Plan, which was launched in July.

Ed Miliband, the Energy and Climate Change Secretary, outlined the plan amid much fanfare.

Under the plan, 40 per cent of the UK’s electricity will need to come from low-carbon energy sources including clean coal, nuclear and renewables.

Accompanying the report is an appendix, only published online, which warns of power shortages. It details supplies and expected demand between now and 2030.

It highlights the first short-fall in 2017. The “energy unserved” level reaches 3000 megawatt hours per year.

That is the equivalent of the whole of the Nottingham area being without electricity for a day.

By 2025 the situation worsens with the shortfall hitting 7000 megawatt hours per year. That is the equivalent to an hour-long power cut for half of Britain. "

The way that this Labour government delayed making any decisions on power generation and have still failed to replace old generating capacity with new reliable generating capacity - wind power is not a reliable source of power - is frankly not just disgraceful but criminal. One of the many investigations that an incoming Conservative government will have to hold, will be into this neglect of the nation's power generating capacity; charges may have to be laid against "responsible" ministers.

In the meantime, as I advised you last October:

"BUY A GENERATOR...

To paraphrase Sir Edward Grey "The lamps will be going out all over Britain; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime."

This government's eco-stupidity seems to know no bounds, unless this is just another piece of scorched earth politics."'

The Sir Edward Grey remark I paraphrased above was said to have been made at the start of the First World War and was "The lamps are going out all over Europe; we shall not see them lit again in our lifetime."

For some starnge reason I can find no mention of the impending power cuts on the BBC news website, I wonder why?


From this article written and posted in September 2009 I think I first started warning of this upcoming power shortage in around 2005. If it was obvious to me and others then, why did the Labour government do nothing to help and indeed actively prevent new power generation sources being built?

Predicting 2012 - Was I even close

On January 1 last year I made some predictions for the coming year; how did I do?

1. Labour's continuing failure to improve in opinion polls will mean Ed Miliband will face increasing pressure on his leadership, however he will cling onto his position. - Wrong, Labour improved in polls and Ed Miliband had no real challengers.

2. The Coalition will come under more pressure as real cuts are planned but will hold together despite more of Vince Cable's unhelpful comments and the increasing efforts of the BBC. - True, but rather an obvious prediction.

3. Nick Clegg will come under increasing pressure but will cling onto his leadership as there is no realistic alternative. - True


Three foreign political predictions for 2012:

1. Barack Obama's popularity will continue to wane but the US media & the BBC will rally around in the run-up to the Presidential elections. - True and oh boy did they.

2. Barack Obama will win the Presidential election thanks to media support and the way the Republican candidate is portrayed by that media. - True and oh so true.

3. The pressure on Israel from 'world opinion' will increase and the Palestinians will pull off further propaganda coups at the United Nations. - True and true.


Three economic predictions for 2012:

1. In the UK unemployment will continue to rise and growth will continue to stagnate. - Wrong and true - call it a half.

2. In the EuroZone the economic situation will worsen whilst Merkozy will continue to claim the solution is near. - True

3. Gold will increase in price to reach USD 2000 by the end of 2012 - Wrong, resilutely stuck in the 1700s but this year...


Five BBC related predictions for 2012:

1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives will finally realise how serious a problem this is but do nothing to address the problem. - I'm not sure the Conservatives have yet realised the danger but the BBC have continued.

2. The BBC will increase its attempts to create splits in the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition government. - Oh yes

3. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in further attacks on Israel - In spades in 2012, hence my increased bloging in this area.

4. The BBC will continue to favour Islam over any other religion - increasingly, and obviously, so

5. The BBC will continue to support Barack Obama and push his successes whilst minimising his setbacks - Oh yes.


Seven Miscellaneous predictions for 2012:

1. An Islamic jihadist attack in 'the West' will succeed and hundreds will die but still 'the West' will not acknowledge the reality of the threat from Islamists - Wrong, thankfully. But I am sure not for the want of trying

2. Iran will continue its move to become a nuclear power and the UN will take no significant action - Correct

3. The Man Made Climate Change religion adherents will become more vocal in their claims and will increase their hold on the western world's politics, despite the increasing evidence to the contrary - Correct, I missed their increasing attempts to silence and attack sceptics/'deniers'

4. Andy Murray will not win the Wimbledon title - Correct

5. There will be an attempted terrorist attack on the 2012 Olympics but it will be thwarted - Wrong, thankfully.

6. British medal success at the 2012 London Olympics will be less than expected, rowing excepted - Wrong I would say, although Charles van Commenee might disagree

7. NotaSheep will continue to blog - Indeed I did, but in 2013?

21 predictions and I scored 15.5 - not Nostradamus but not bad and better than last year.

2013 predictions later today or tomorrow.

Wrong, oh so wrong!

The Telegraph's form guide had this to say about the eventual winner of yesterday's Grand National - Neptune Collonges - 'Tough and a good jumper. May find weight anchoring him at finish.'

Neptune Colonges won the Grand National by a very short nose only overtaking Sunnyhillboy in the last stride or so. Here's the photo-finish photo...

I'd say Neptune Collanges was hardly being anchored by the weight he was carrying at the end of the race!

Predictions for 2012

Three UK political predictions for 2012:

1. Labour's continuing failure to improve in opinion polls will mean Ed Miliband will face increasing pressure on his leadership, however he will cling onto his position.

2. The Coalition will come under more pressure as real cuts are planned but will hold together despite more of Vince Cable's unhelpful comments and the increasing efforts of the BBC.

3. Nick Clegg will come under increasing pressure but will cling onto his leadership as there is no realistic alternative.


Three foreign political predictions for 2012:

1. Barack Obama's popularity will continue to wane but the US media & the BBC will rally around in the run-up to the Presidential elections.

2. Barack Obama will win the Presidential election thanks to media support and the way the Republican candidate is portrayed by that media.

3. The pressure on Israel from 'world opinion' will increase and the Palestinians will pull off further propaganda coups at the United Nations.


Three economic predictions for 2012:

1. In the UK unemployment will continue to rise and growth will continue to stagnate.

2. In the EuroZone the economic situation will worsen whilst Merkozy will continue to claim the solution is near.

3. Gold will increase in price to reach USD 2000 by the end of 2012


Five BBC related predictions for 2012:

1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives will finally realise how serious a problem this is but do nothing to address the problem

2. The BBC will increase its attempts to create splits in the Conservative/Lib Dem coalition government.

3. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in further attacks on Israel

4. The BBC will continue to favour Islam over any other religion

5. The BBC will continue to support Barack Obama and push his successes whilst minimising his setbacks


Seven Miscellaneous predictions for 2012:

1. An Islamic jihadist attack in 'the West' will succeed and hundreds will die but still 'the West' will not acknowledge the reality of the threat from Islamists

2. Iran will continue its move to become a nuclear power and the UN will take no significant action

3. The Man Made Climate Change religion adherents will become more vocal in their claims and will increase their hold on the western world's politics, despite the increasing evidence to the contrary

4. Andy Murray will not win the Wimbledon title

5. There will be an attempted terrorist attack on the 2012 Olympics but it will be thwarted

6. British medal success at the 2012 London Olympics will be less than expected, rowing excepted

7. NotaSheep will continue to blog

Predicting 2011 - was I even close?

Last year I made some predictions for 2011, how did I do?

Eight UK political predictions for 2011:

1. Labour will make huge gains at the local elections in May, mostly at the expense of the Lib Dems.
Correct
2. Labour will use their gains to start to question the legitimacy of the Coalition to govern, the BBC will provide them with a platform
Correct
3. The Coalition will not last the whole year. The local election results will prove too much for many LibDems
Wrong
4. At least one LibDem MP will join Labour
Wrong
5. Following the Coalition split the Conservatives will govern as a minority government and will thus be blamed for all the economic woes of the country
Wrong on part one but correct on part two
6. The Conservative government will fall and at the subsequent general election Labour will be the largest single party. The resultant horse-trading will be very lengthy
Wrong
7. David Cameron will not survive as Conservative leader beyond the general election
Wrong
8. Nick Clegg will not survive as Lib Dem leader beyond the general election, he will be replaced by Simon Hughes
Wrong


Three/Four foreign political predictions for 2011:
1. Barack Obama's popularity will continue to wane but the US media will rally around
Correct
2. The Republicans in the US Congress will gather strength but Sarah Palin's increasing popularity will cause them problems with the media
Debatable
3. The Irish general election will result in a large increase in votes for Sinn Fein
Correct
4. The South of Sudan will vote in the 9 January referendum to secede from Sudan; the result will be bloody
Correct


Five economic predictions for 2011:
1. The UK economy will worsen: unemployment up, inflation up, growth negative, debt up
Correct: correct, may have topped, wrong, correct
2. The EuroZone economy will worsen: unemployment up, inflation up, growth negative, debt up
Correct: correct, variable, wrong, correct
3. The US economy will worsen: unemployment up, inflation up, growth negative, debt up
Mixed
4. The Pound, Euro and US Dollar will all weaken against the Swiss Franc, Japanese Yen and Chinese Yuan
Correct
5. Gold will increase in price to reach USD 2000 by the end of 2011
Wrong, gold did increase but only to $1800 and then fell back. I did not reckon on market manipulation.

Five BBC related predictions for 2011:
1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives will finally realise how serious a problem this is but do nothing to address the problem
Correct
2. The BBC will continue to push for the withdrawal of British armed forces from Afghanistan
Correct
3. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in further attacks on Israel
Correct
4. The BBC will continue to favour Islam over any other religion
Correct
5. The BBC will continue to support Barack Obama and push his successes whilst minimising his setbacks
Correct

10 Miscellaneous predictions for 2011:
1. An Islamic jihadist attack in 'the West' will succeed and hundreds will die but still 'the West' will not acknowledge the reality of the threat from Islam
Thankfully not correct
2. Iran will continue its move to become a nuclear power and the UN will take no significant action
Correct
3. The Man Made Climate Change religion adherents will become more vocal in their claims and will increase their hold on the western world's politics, despite the increasing evidence to the contrary
Correct
4. The Sun will reach Solar Max and some of the Earth's communication systems will be adversely affected
Thankfully wrong
5. The wedding of Prince William and Kate Middleton is disrupted by malcontents
Wrong
6. Simon Cowell decides that he now has enough money, gives up his dreadful shows and retires; TV immediately gets more watchable (more of a hope than an expectation, this one)
Unfortunately wrong
7.
?
8. England will get to the final of the Rugby World Cup but lose there
Woefully wrong
9. Andy Murray will not win the Wimbledon title
Correct, but was there much doubt?
10. NotaSheep will continue to blog
Correct


Nostradamus I am not!
Predictions for this year later today or tomorrow...

What a match!

A great game of World Cup rugby at Eden Park. There were too many unforced errors by Australia but the New Zealand All Blacks were immense and I predict will go on to comfortably beat France in next week's final.

How prescient!

Thanks to a recent anonymous commenter I have been reminded of this post from January 2008. Here's the relevant extract, but do read the whole piece:

'I am a relatively streetwise Mr NotaSheep, but I try not to walk alone or with Mrs NotaSheep at night on London's streets. To be honest a lot of London's streets are probably unsafe in broad daylight. The gangs of feral youths that "own" the streets now know that the chances of a policeman catching them in the act of mugging a passerby are almost zero, the chances of any CCTV actually working or producing a decent image or not being used to take photos of cars parked six inches onto a yellow line or one minute into a proscribed period are also nil and even if caught the chances of being charged let alone convicted are somewhat slim and as for having to go to prison for more than six months, the odds are infinitesimal.

...

This Labour government tell us the country is safer than 10 years ago and Ken Livingstone tells us that crime is down in London. The trouble is, we know the truth and the truth is that the streets are more dangerous than 10 years ago and law-abiding people feel unsafe to walk 400 yards across the West End on a Saturday night after a meal out or a visit to the theatre, let alone pop out to buy a kebab in Peckham.

This Labour government have all but destroyed that which holds the fabric of society together and as the economy collapses this year the results on the street will not be pretty.'

  Well it looks as though I was right, just a bit previous!

Well I got that wrong

Been out all day, came home and turned on the cricket just before tea. At tea the Sky experts were saying that it wasn't all over and England could take 8 more wickets for not too many runs in 50 overs. After all the West Indies had bowled England out for that sort of score before. Yes indeed I thought but England don't have that calibre of bowler and this is not Sabina Park. Tea was taken in the Test Match and indeed at Casa NotaSheep and we settled down to watch a little cricket. My cynicism was exposed as England have taken six more wickets for 40 runs. Can they win it now? Maybe they can. Should I take up sport punditry? probably not a good idea!


UPDATE:
Yes they can and did; well done England as I thought four frontline bowlers was not enough let alone three once Anderson went off injured as a bowler. I'd still prefer better than Pieterson and Trott sharing fifth bowler duties but what do I know about cricket?!

'June The Met Office predicts a hot, dry and sunny summer. Black ice causes thousands of accidents as temperatures plunge to unseasonable lows. The Met Office says it is due to unusual wind patterns from Siberia, and has probably been made worse by global warming.'

'June
The Met Office predicts a hot, dry and sunny summer. Black ice causes thousands of accidents as temperatures plunge to unseasonable lows. The Met Office says it is due to unusual wind patterns from Siberia, and has probably been made worse by global warming.

...

November
The Met Office announces that 2011 is “on track to be the hottest year ever”. The government orders local councils to stop road gritting because of the adverse environmental impact of spreading salt. Heavy snow falls cause transport chaos and close the M1.'

Adam Collyer predicts 2011...

'Nick Clegg attempted to widen his appeal to voters of Scotland’s minority parties by expressing a wish to one day go clubbing with Tommy Sheridan. Meanwhile, Ed Miliband raised eyebrows when he claimed that his favourite sporting memory was watching Kenny Dalglish slide the ball through Ray Clemence’s legs at the 1976 England v Scotland home international. It later transpired that the seven year old Miliband had actually been attending a meeting of the Woodcraft Folk at the time.'

'Nick Clegg attempted to widen his appeal to voters of Scotland’s minority parties by expressing a wish to one day go clubbing with Tommy Sheridan. Meanwhile, Ed Miliband raised eyebrows when he claimed that his favourite sporting memory was watching Kenny Dalglish slide the ball through Ray Clemence’s legs at the 1976 England v Scotland home international. It later transpired that the seven year old Miliband had actually been attending a meeting of the Woodcraft Folk at the time.'

from Labour Uncut's '2011: the year in review', take a read there's some more good stuff there, including these:

'Speaker John Bercow faced further questions from Conservative MPs about his impartiality after he leapt to his feet during one fiery pmqs exchange and cried, “Get in there, Ed”! The controversy was exacerbated when the Speaker’s wife was spotted taping “Vote Labour” posters to the windows of the Speaker’s apartments.

...

Away from Westminster, the “anti-consumer, pro-student, anti-police, pro-direct action, anti-monarchy, socialist-anarchic people’s grassroots popular alliance” plan to disrupt the royal wedding foundered when it emerged that parents of 76 of the 113-strong executive committee were on the official guest list. “Fighting the power’s all well and good”, said a spokesman, “but I’ve got my allowance to think about”.

...

On the international stage, president Obama became embroiled in the “Palingate” scandal, after allegations that he had been secretly channelling funds to the “Sarah Palin for president” exploratory committee. In a terse statement delivered in the White House rose garden, a clearly emotional president told reporters, “I want you to listen to me. I’m going to say this again. I did not have financial relations with that woman”.'

Predictions for 2010 - reality check

I made two sets of predictions at the end of 2009, so how did I do?

This set was split into three sections (actual outcome in italics):

'Five political predictions for 2010:
1. Gordon Brown will continue to try and create spurious and contrived dividing lines with the Conservatives, the BBC will assist by pushing the dividing lines - Yes but was a no-brainer
2. The election will be held on May 6 (along with the local elections) because Labour cannot afford to run two campaigns and this way they will maximise their vote in the council elections - It was
3. The pre-election leader's debates will produce a surprise win (in the view of opinion polls) for Gordon Brown - Thankfully I was wrong
4. The pre-election leader's debates will produce an increase in support for the Lib Dems - A big yes
5. Labour win the general election, postal votes being a key factor, and the protests about vote-rigging are dismissed as "losers' sour grapes" - I am sure there was vote-rigging but not enough to keep Labour in power, maybe enough to keep the Conservatives from an overall majority though

Five economic predictions for 2010:
1. With a Labour victory at the general election (see above) the UK's credit rating will drop from AAA and the resultant rise in interest rates will produce the second half of the 'W shaped' recession - Interest rate rise looks like being in early 2011 not late 2010 and I see a second dip in GDP
2. The re-election of a Labour government will mean that the exodus of bankers and other financial institutions to more financially friendly locations - No Labour victory but the state of the UK economy and the move to higher taxation could still mean this happening in 2011
3. The ever larger hole in the Treasury's tax receipts will mean that the higher rate of income tax rises to 60% and VAT to 20% - Right on VAT if not Income Tax, yet
4. The Pound will reach parity with the Euro and the price for IMF and EU assistance for the "sick man of Europe" will be joining the Euro. Being at parity will make this an easier sell for Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson - The Euro countries weakened before the UK, to a large degree because Labour did not win the election
5. Having dropped to around USD 1,100 at the end of 2009; gold will rise ever higher, reaching USD 1500 by the end of the 2010 - Closed New Years Eve at around $1,410 - not quite and I am surprised

Five BBC related predictions for 2010:
1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - Right and right
2. The tone of the BBC's leader's debate will be clearly pro-Labour, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - Right and right
3. The BBC will minimise their coverage of the postal voting scandal (see above), the Conservatives will finally realise how serious this BBC bias is but it will be too late - Right
4. The BBC will continue to push for the withdrawal of British armed forces from Afghanistan - Right
5. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in the coming further military attacks on Israel - Right'

I make that 3/5 on politics, 0.5/5 on economics (with an extra point just delayed) and 5/5 on the BBC.


I also made 10 Miscellaneous predictions how did I fare?

1. An Islamic jihadist attack will succeed and hundreds will die but still 'the West' will not acknowledge the reality of the threat - No single attack was that large but cumulatively much larger
2. Iran will test a nuclear device and the UN will still pretend that they pose no threat to Israel or anyone else - Not quite, but will do soon
3. The Man Made Climate Change religion will increase its hold on the western world's politics and the 'warmists' will make holding 'deniers' views even more difficult - Interesting; whilst the 'warmist' hold on power and opinion has tightened, a larger proportion of the public seem to be realising that all is not as they are being told
4. Microsoft will release Office 2010 to replace Office 2007 but most businesses will still stick with Office 2003 - Obviously
5. Nigel Farage will beat John Bercow to take his Buckingham seat - Unfortunately not
6. Matt Smith's portrayal of The Doctor will not match up to David Tennant's - Still open to debate but I think Matt Smith has been a very good Doctor so far
7. The Big Brother team will engineer a 'controversy' for the final series, I won't care - Did they, I didn't pay it any attention?
8. England will not win the World Cup - Easy point
9. Andy Murray will not win the Wimbledon title - Another easy point
10. NotaSheep will continue to blog - Despite a wobble or two, I have done so

I make that 5 correct and 1 sort of, so 6/10 - that's an A* now isn't it?

Predictions for 2011 to follow...

Sorry I was wrong

Last week I tried to predict the date of the upcoming royal wedding. My prediction was based on the assumption that '...they want to try and have a sunny day' thus 'it will have to be no earlier than late May, no later than early September and preferably not in August when most of the wealthy decamp to their holiday homes in the Dordogne or Tuscany.

So my predictions did not start until the end of May whilst William and Kate/Katherine have plumped for 29 April.

So my predictions were way out and for that I apologise.


Moving on to look at 29 April, my first thought was that that was not a good day for a wedding being the day (in 1945) that Adolph Hitler married Eva Braun, they committed suicide the following day.

Wikipedia informs me that 29 April 2011 will be Jerry Seinfeld's 56th birthday, Daniel Day Lewis's 54th, Phil Tufnell's 45th and Uma Thurman & Andre Agassi's 41st - so that's part of the invitation list sorted out.

Ryder Cup predictions and reality (final score)

L Westwood v S Stricker - Europe - Wrong - Stricker won 2&1 - US 1 point

R McIlroy v S Cink - USA - Wrong - match halved - 0.5 points each

L Donald v J Furyk - Halved - Wrong Donald wins 1 up - Europe 1 point

M Kaymer v D Johnson - Halved - Wrong, very wrong - Kaymer loses 6&4 - US 1 point

I Poulter v M Kuchar - Europe - Right - Poulter wins 5&4 - Europe 1 point

R Fisher v J Overton - USA - Right - Overton wins 3&2 - US 1 point

MA Jimenez v B Watson - USA - Wrong, very wrong - Jimenez wins 4&3 - Europe 1 point

F Molinari v T Woods - USA - Right - Woods 4&3 - US 1 point

E Molinari v R Fowler - USA - Wrong halved - 0.5 points each

P Hanson v P Mickelson - Halve - Wrong US win 4&2 - US 1 point

P Harrington v Z Johnson - Halve - Wrong US win 3&2 - US 1 point

G McDowell v H Mahan - Halve - Wrong McDowell wins 2&1 - Europe 1 point

That's an original prediction of 4.5 to Europe and 7.5 to USA making it a 14:14 tie and the US retaining the trophy. Which is not what we want is it?

This is looking very close... may go to the last match! Nerves... It did go to the last match and Europe win 14.5 to 13.5... Whew!

So either I was just half a point out on each team or I only predicted three results correctly...

Ryder Cup predictions and reality so far (update)

L Westwood v S Stricker - Europe - Wrong - Stricker won 2&1 - US 1 point

R McIlroy v S Cink - USA - Wrong - match halved - 0.5 points each

L Donald v J Furyk - Halved - Wrong Donald wins 1 up - Europe 1 point

M Kaymer v D Johnson - Halved - Wrong, very wrong - Kaymer loses 6&4 - US 1 point

I Poulter v M Kuchar - Europe - Right - Poulter wins 5&4 - Europe 1 point

R Fisher v J Overton - USA - Right - Overton wins 3&2

MA Jimenez v B Watson - USA - Wrong, very wrong - Jimenez wins 4&3

F Molinari v T Woods - USA - Right - Woods 4&3

E Molinari v R Fowler - USA

P Hanson v P Mickelson - Halve

P Harrington v Z Johnson - Halve

G McDowell v H Mahan - Halve

That's an original prediction of 4.5 to Europe and 7.5 to USA making it a 14:14 tie and the US retaining the trophy. Which is not what we want is it?

This is looking very close... may go to the last match! Nerves...

Ryder Cup final day - my foolish predictions

L Westwood v S Stricker - Europe

R McIlroy v S Cink - USA

L Donald v J Furyk - Halved

M Kaymer v D Johnson - Halved

I Poulter v M Kuchar - Europe

R Fisher v J Overton - USA

MA Jimenez v B Watson - USA

F Molinari v T Woods - USA

E Molinari v R Fowler - USA

P Hanson v P Mickelson - Halve

P Harrington v Z Johnson - Halve

G McDowell v H Mahan - Halve

That's 4.5 to Europe and 7.5 to USA making it a 14:14 tie and the US retaining the trophy. Now that's not what we want is it?

Another prediction coming true?

Forex Gold Index(pm fix) $/oz Wed 16:20 1293.50

Can $1,300 per oz be far off and then $1,500?

'Having dropped to around USD 1,100 at the end of 2009; gold will rise ever higher, reaching USD 1500 by the end of the 2010'

'... a monomaniacal sociopath with all the charm of a septic tank and the communication skills of a stoat...'

Not my words but those of Simon Heffer in The Telegrpah. Here's the relevant passage from an article about the ineptness of David Miliband and why Simon Heffer, like me, thinks that Ed Miliband will be the next Labour leader.

'Could things have been any worse under a Miliband D leadership? I doubt it. Indeed, one point about the late election that those of us who write about politics have failed to express properly is just how well Labour did. Despite its being led by a monomaniacal sociopath with all the charm of a septic tank and the communication skills of a stoat, and despite having engaged in the worst act of economic mismanagement in 80 years, Labour still won 258 seats, and prevented any other party from forming an administration on its own. Just think what it might have done had it been led by a man whose only real failing was to be pictured in an unfortunate relationship with a piece of fruit. '

Simon Heffer believes that the coalition government will not last four let alone five years and that the next Labour leader could be Prime Minister by this time next year; he may well be right.

The eighty-sixth weekly "No shit, Sherlock" award

This week's award was trailed yesterday and goes to 'a wide-ranging economic survey for The Sunday Telegraph' as reported in The Sunday Telegraph:

'The economy will grow by well over a percentage point less next year than the Budget predicted in March.'

"No shit, Sherlock", did anyone really believe Alistair Darling/Gordon Brown's pre-election economic growth predictions?

Two months on...

On 31 December 2009 I made some predictions, I thought I'd see how they were coming along...

Five political predictions for 2010:
1. Gordon Brown will continue to try and create spurious and contrived dividing lines with the Conservatives, the BBC will assist by pushing the dividing lines - YES
2. The election will be held on May 6 (along with the local elections) because Labour cannot afford to run two campaigns and this way they will maximise their vote in the council elections - Unresolved but still looking likely
3. The pre-election leader's debates will produce a surprise win (in the view of opinion polls) for Gordon Brown - Unresolved
4. The pre-election leader's debates will produce an increase in support for the Lib Dems - Unresolved
5. Labour win the general election, postal votes being a key factor, and the protests about vote-rigging are dismissed as "losers' sour grapes" - Unresolved

Five economic predictions for 2010:
1. With a Labour victory at the general election (see above) the UK's credit rating will drop from AAA and the resultant rise in interest rates will produce the second half of the 'W shaped' recession - UK credit rating already diminished?
2. The re-election of a Labour government will mean that the exodus of bankers and other financial institutions to more financially friendly locations - Unresolved
3. The ever larger hole in the Treasury's tax receipts will mean that the higher rate of income tax rises to 60% and VAT to 20% - VAT to 20% is already being trailed, anyone want to bet on tax not moving higher?
4. The Pound will reach parity with the Euro and the price for IMF and EU assistance for the "sick man of Europe" will be joining the Euro. Being at parity will make this an easier sell for Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson - Sterling is on the slide even as I write
5. Having dropped to around USD 1,100 at the end of 2009; gold will rise ever higher, reaching USD 1500 by the end of the 2010 - I still believe this and am surprised gold has stuck around USD 1,100 for so long

Five BBC related predictions for 2010:
1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - YES
2. The tone of the BBC's leader's debate will be clearly pro-Labour, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is - Unresolved
3. The BBC will minimise their coverage of the postal voting scandal (see above), the Conservatives will finally realise how serious this BBC bias is but it will be too late - Unresolved
4. The BBC will continue to push for the withdrawal of British armed forces from Afghanistan - YES
5. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in the coming further military attacks on Israel - YES


Coming along nicely...

Here's to 2010

The blogosphere seems almost full of predictions for 2010, including Iain Dale's ten predictions for what will happen and Letter From a Tory's 10 things that won't happen. So who am I to miss out?

Five political predictions for 2010:
1. Gordon Brown will continue to try and create spurious and contrived dividing lines with the Conservatives, the BBC will assist by pushing the dividing lines
2. The election will be held on May 6 (along with the local elections) because Labour cannot afford to run two campaigns and this way they will maximise their vote in the council elections
3. The pre-election leader's debates will produce a surprise win (in the view of opinion polls) for Gordon Brown
4. The pre-election leader's debates will produce an increase in support for the Lib Dems
5. Labour win the general election, postal votes being a key factor, and the protests about vote-rigging are dismissed as "losers' sour grapes"

Five economic predictions for 2010:
1. With a Labour victory at the general election (see above) the UK's credit rating will drop from AAA and the resultant rise in interest rates will produce the second half of the 'W shaped' recession
2. The re-election of a Labour government will mean that the exodus of bankers and other financial institutions to more financially friendly locations
3. The ever larger hole in the Treasury's tax receipts will mean that the higher rate of income tax rises to 60% and VAT to 20%
4. The Pound will reach parity with the Euro and the price for IMF and EU assistance for the "sick man of Europe" will be joining the Euro. Being at parity will make this an easier sell for Gordon Brown and Peter Mandelson
5. Having dropped to around USD 1,100 at the end of 2009; gold will rise ever higher, reaching USD 1500 by the end of the 2010

Five BBC related predictions for 2010:
1. The BBC will become ever more blatantly biased in favour of the Labour party, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is
2. The tone of the BBC's leader's debate will be clearly pro-Labour, the Conservatives won't realise how serious a problem this is
3. The BBC will minimise their coverage of the postal voting scandal (see above), the Conservatives will finally realise how serious this BBC bias is but it will be too late
4. The BBC will continue to push for the withdrawal of British armed forces from Afghanistan
5. The BBC will continue to vilify Israel at every opportunity and revel in the coming further military attacks on Israel


More to follow...