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Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Japan. Show all posts

Friday, 10 October 2014

The 2011 Japanese tsunami



Watch especially from 1:25, scarier than any horror film.

Please don't forget the horror that happened in Japan in 2011, charities are still collecting.


Other incredibly scary videos from 2011's tsunami include this one from Sendai airport



This one 

Wednesday, 1 October 2014

The BBC letting slip why social cohesion is better in Japan than in Europe and other Western countries

In a BBC articleabout Japanese autumnal oddities, comes this paragraph:
'It's often been said that Japan operates via strict social norms to achieve its remarkable social cohesion and that this is largely responsible for making Japan such a pleasant place to live. There are no bins at the beaches, nor on the streets. By and large, Japanese people take their rubbish home with them. Just one example of the positive benefits of this cohesion.'
That and very limited third world immigration...

Wednesday, 22 June 2011

What's going on at Fukushima and/or Al Jazeera

I have noticed that whilst most of the world's media have stopped covering the problems at the Fukushima nuclear power station following the earthquake and tsunami, there is one media outlet that seems obsessed - Al Jazeera. I am receiving several near apocalyptic tweets a day from Al Jazeera. Recent ones include:

Fukushima: It's much worse than you think http://aje.me/mTe6U5

#Fukushima: At least 966 square kilometers of #Japan will be uninhabitable due to the #nuclear disaster. http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

Officials have finally admitted that 3 #nuclear reactors at #Fukushima experienced meltdown. http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

Study: There is an unexplained 35% spike in infant mortality in the U.S. northwest after #Fukushima. http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

Like BP's #oilspill last year, officials initially underestimated the extent of the #radiation calamity at #Fukushima. http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

So-called 'hot particles' of radiation, emitted from #Fukushima, have continued to fall internationally. http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

These hot particles of radiation can lodge in the lungs and digestive tract - leading to cancer. #Fukushima http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

The problems of #Fukushima are 'infinite' because the melted #radioactive cores must be stored 'forever.' http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

We're still within a crucial period post-#earthquake. A 'very big' aftershock could further exacerbate #Fukushima. http://bit.ly/jgPTsn

The question will always be: Why weren't #Japan's systems redundant enough? Whose fault was #Fukushima? http://bit.ly/jgPTsn
So are Al Jazeera the only news agency telling the truth about Fukushima? Are all the rest hiding the truth from the world's populace?  Or does Al Jazeera being based in Qatar, where oil and gas account for 50% of GDP, roughly 85% of export earnings, and 70% of government revenues, account for the negative attitude towards nuclear power?

Friday, 3 June 2011

Fukushima what the BBC reports and what it does not

The BBC love to report any negative news arising from the tsunami hitting the Fukushima nuclear plant in Japan. Search for Fukushima on the BBC news website and there are lots of articles many insinuating that the plant suffered more than has been admitted or just scaremongering. What you will not find is any mention of the IAEA's interim report on the Fukushima incident pdf here. Here are some extracts that I would have thought that an unbiased news organisation would want to report:
'The expert team made several preliminary findings and lessons learned, including:

* Japan's response to the nuclear accident has been exemplary, particularly illustrated by the dedicated, determined and expert staff working under exceptional circumstances;
* Japan's long-term response, including the evacuation of the area around stricken reactors, has been impressive and well organized. A suitable and timely follow-up programme on public and worker exposures and health monitoring would be beneficial;

...

To date no health effects have been reported in any person as a result of radiation exposure from the nuclear accident.'
It seems that the BBC are a little put out that despite a major earthquake and resultant tsunami that killed tens of thousands of Japanese people, the nuclear plant at Fukushima did not kill many more. In fact whilst the nuclear fuel rods did melt, the resultant radiation was largely contained in the reactors as it was designed to be. There were mass evacuations and the IAEA say that these were 'hard to justify on safety grounds'. They were easy to justify on the grounds that the word radiation causes panic amongst the unscientific majority.

The BBC are not alone in this love of disasters and reporting just bad news BUT they are meant to be unbiased, they are meant to report all the news not just that which fits their world view AND most importantly I am forced to pay for their news reporting so I should be able to hold them to account.

Friday, 27 May 2011

'Japan beats deflation for the first time in two years'

'Japan beats deflation for the first time in two years'
So reports the headline on this BBC piece. My immediate thought when I read the headline, and bear in mind that a lot of people don't read much if any of these articles was, if Japan the land of deflation is starting to experience inflation then we really could be in the early stages of a nasty period of inflation.

The BBC do go on to explain that this is not all good news:
'However, credit ratings agency Fitch has downgraded its outlook on Japan's debt to negative from stable.

Fitch said it was worried about the high levels of Japanese government debt.

...

Gross domestic product shrank 0.9% in the first three months of the year.

Japan's economy has now contracted for two quarters in a row, the generally accepted definition of a recession.'
However that headline really should be re-written.

Monday, 23 May 2011

Saturday, 2 April 2011

Rescued after three weeks at sea following the Japanese tsunami



Rescued from floating wreckage some way off the Japanese coast, a small wiry dog who must have been very scared, hungry and thirsty for the last three weeks.

Tuesday, 29 March 2011

The bravest man alive?


Hideaki Akaiwa may be the bravest man alive; for the story of how he dived into the tsunami waters to rescue his wife, then his mother and then others take a read of this bad ass of the week article, there is a language warning but the story is uplifting.

Hideaki Akaiwa I salute you.

Thursday, 24 March 2011

Road repairs in Japan


According to The Mail those two photographs are of the Great Kanto Highway in Naka where repair work began on March 17 and six days later the cratered section was repaired and ready to re-open to traffic. I know of potholes that have been around since January's ice that have been marked in yellow for repair but not repaired yet. The A40 elevated section's lights were removed over a year ago and not yet replaced.

This is one of the differences between a hard-working workforce and motivated political class and what we have in the UK.

Tuesday, 22 March 2011

Radiation levels are scary but not as scary as stupidity

The BBC and much of the rest of the British media are scaring people with their 'radiation leak' stories. Radiation sounds scary and we have been conditioned to think any radiation is dangerous, but is it. Here's a chart that I found yesterday that I think puts the Fukushima radiation leak into perspective..
Many thanks to xcd.com for the chart and this explanation
'There’s a lot of discussion of radiation from the Fukushima plants, along with comparisons to Three Mile Island and Chernobyl. Radiation levels are often described as “ times the normal level” or “% over the legal limit,” which can be pretty confusing.

Ellen, a friend of mine who’s a student at Reed and Senior Reactor Operator at the Reed Research Reactor, has been spending the last few days answering questions about radiation dosage virtually nonstop (I’ve actually seen her interrupt them with “brb, reactor”). She suggested a chart might help put different amounts of radiation into perspective, and so with her help, I put one together. She also made one of her own; it has fewer colors, but contains more information about what radiation exposure consists of and how it affects the body.

I’m not an expert in radiation and I’m sure I’ve got a lot of mistakes in here, but there’s so much wild misinformation out there that I figured a broad comparison of different types of dosages might be good anyway. I don’t include too much about the Fukushima reactor because the situation seems to be changing by the hour, but I hope the chart provides some helpful context.

Note that there are different types of ionizing radiation; the “sievert” unit quantifies the degree to which each type (gamma rays, alpha particles, etc) affects the body. You can learn more from my sources list. If you’re looking for expert updates on the nuclear situation, try the MIT NSE Hub. Ellen’s page on radiation is here.

Lastly, remember that while there’s a lot of focus on possible worst-case scenarios involving the nuclear plants, the tsunami was an actual disaster that’s already killed thousands. Hundreds of thousands more, including my best friend from college, are in shelters with limited access to basic supplies and almost no ability to contact the outside world. If you’re not sure how to help, Google’s Japan Crisis Resource page is a good place to start.'


This was where I was going to end this piece but then I read George Monbiot's piece in today's Guardian and just had to quote him, especially as he picked up on the same chart that I have:
'You will not be surprised to hear that the events in Japan have changed my view of nuclear power. You will be surprised to hear how they have changed it. As a result of the disaster at Fukushima, I am no longer nuclear-neutral. I now support the technology.

A crappy old plant with inadequate safety features was hit by a monster earthquake and a vast tsunami. The electricity supply failed, knocking out the cooling system. The reactors began to explode and melt down. The disaster exposed a familiar legacy of poor design and corner-cutting. Yet, as far as we know, no one has yet received a lethal dose of radiation.

Some greens have wildly exaggerated the dangers of radioactive pollution. For a clearer view, look at the graphic published by xkcd.com. It shows that the average total dose from the Three Mile Island disaster for someone living within 10 miles of the plant was one 625th of the maximum yearly amount permitted for US radiation workers. This, in turn, is half of the lowest one-year dose clearly linked to an increased cancer risk, which, in its turn, is one 80th of an invariably fatal exposure. I'm not proposing complacency here. I am proposing perspective.'
My worry is that this article is not actually by George Monbiot but is a joke because George Monbiot then goes onto to explain why free-energy solutions won't be able to replace fossil fuels and nuclear:
'Like most greens, I favour a major expansion of renewables. I can also sympathise with the complaints of their opponents. It's not just the onshore windfarms that bother people, but also the new grid connections (pylons and power lines). As the proportion of renewable electricity on the grid rises, more pumped storage will be needed to keep the lights on. That means reservoirs on mountains: they aren't popular, either.
The impacts and costs of renewables rise with the proportion of power they supply, as the need for storage and redundancy increases. It may well be the case (I have yet to see a comparative study) that up to a certain grid penetration – 50% or 70%, perhaps? – renewables have smaller carbon impacts than nuclear, while beyond that point, nuclear has smaller impacts than renewables.

Like others, I have called for renewable power to be used both to replace the electricity produced by fossil fuel and to expand the total supply, displacing the oil used for transport and the gas used for heating fuel. Are we also to demand that it replaces current nuclear capacity? The more work we expect renewables to do, the greater the impact on the landscape will be, and the tougher the task of public persuasion.

But expanding the grid to connect people and industry to rich, distant sources of ambient energy is also rejected by most of the greens who complained about the blog post I wrote last week in which I argued that nuclear remains safer than coal. What they want, they tell me, is something quite different: we should power down and produce our energy locally. Some have even called for the abandonment of the grid. Their bucolic vision sounds lovely, until you read the small print.

At high latitudes like ours, most small-scale ambient power production is a dead loss. Generating solar power in the UK involves a spectacular waste of scarce resources. It's hopelessly inefficient and poorly matched to the pattern of demand. Wind power in populated areas is largely worthless. This is partly because we have built our settlements in sheltered places; partly because turbulence caused by the buildings interferes with the airflow and chews up the mechanism. Micro-hydropower might work for a farmhouse in Wales, but it's not much use in Birmingham.

And how do we drive our textile mills, brick kilns, blast furnaces and electric railways – not to mention advanced industrial processes? Rooftop solar panels? The moment you consider the demands of the whole economy is the moment at which you fall out of love with local energy production. A national (or, better still, international) grid is the essential prerequisite for a largely renewable energy supply.'
Do read the rest of George Monbiot's article, the history leson is quite interesting and contains figures that are very interesting indeed for those of you  who think that industrialisation was a mistake! The end of George Monbiot's article is even more interesting and should be spread as when even a green like Monbiot realises this then the essential truth needs spreading:
'But the energy source to which most economies will revert if they shut down their nuclear plants is not wood, water, wind or sun, but fossil fuel. On every measure (climate change, mining impact, local pollution, industrial injury and death, even radioactive discharges) coal is 100 times worse than nuclear power. Thanks to the expansion of shale gas production, the impacts of natural gas are catching up fast.
Yes, I still loathe the liars who run the nuclear industry. Yes, I would prefer to see the entire sector shut down, if there were harmless alternatives. But there are no ideal solutions. Every energy technology carries a cost; so does the absence of energy technologies. Atomic energy has just been subjected to one of the harshest of possible tests, and the impact on people and the planet has been small. The crisis at Fukushima has converted me to the cause of nuclear power.'
Of course the truth is something that some, not all, Guardian readers do not like to be presented with when it contradicts their prejudices. Here are two who really don't like facing reality:
'
  • dirkbruere
    21 March 2011 7:47PM
    George Monbiot has been kidnapped and replaced by a nuclear industry shill!
    Or some kind of weird clone.
    Or something.
    TINA
  • Ruby4
    21 March 2011 7:48PM
    Grow up and do some real research about the dangers of nuclear fission George. These people supporting Nuclear Power do not really invest in or research the alternatives because profit is their main motive. It is true that they would say that it proves you are in perfect health if you manage to not drop dead after your third heart attack. The Japanese people were told their Nuclear Power plants were 'earthquake proof'!
    If you think they are safe I am sure you will prove it by living near one and having the waste buried in your garden.'

The last one is quite amusing in its deliberate misunderstanding and misstaement of what George Monbiot said and meant.

This fact that the Japanese nuclear industry as a whole has coped brilliantly with the earthquake and tsunami has not been said enough. Fukushima was the only plant damaged and despite experiencing a massive earthquake (far more powerful than the plant was designed to withstand) followed by an enormous tsuanmi that destroyed virtually every building in the area except the nuclear power station and severed all power supply, the plant did not start destructing. Yes the Fukushima plant has major issues but they it is not spewing radiation in any significant levels and not all radiation is dangerous.

This last point brings me to a piece of video I saw this morning, it's Ann Coulter being interviewed about radiation. Now watch the video, all of it and tink about what she actually said

Now read the hysterical comments underneath the video, here's a few examples:
'WTF?! This bitch has gone WAY past just being bad for the collective intelligence, she's now batshit dangerous. How did Bill O, as steeped in the Fox News koolaid as he is, allow her to blather this crap on his show? I'm not kidding, there's got to be a very real risk of liability if some education-challenged idiot goes off and swallows radium for his health.

And hormesis?! Is she fucking serious?! That snake oil crapola?

She needs to be shunned by the media -- completely shut down.
tgrigsby7 4 hours ago
#

@elementguy13 - whew - where does one start? How about if you had small children visiting granny in Japan, and actually thought Ann Coulter was speaking from a place of trying to spread information, because that is what tv journalists are supposed to do, so you say - "hey - no hurry ...".

Now multiply that by millions of panicked people, most of whom have no understanding of nuclear physics! Are you getting the picture why this is a bad thing? It's all about the benjamins.
javamanV3 5 hours ago
#

Radiation is good for you, if you're trying win a bet by getting cancer and dying the fastest. Respect to Bill'O because he's being reasonable and he knows it's irresponsible to let her say crazy shit without clarification.
Deepstarr7020 5 hours ago
#

This is brainwashing for the braindead at it's best. How retarded does she think the general public is?! Also note how she FAILS to mention what kind of radioactive particles are being blown airbourne in Japan. There are ZERO cases of radioactivity coming of particles being good for a human body.. . And she FAILS to mention the fact that it doesn't matter if it's caesium iodine plutonium or uranium if they get stuck in your body you WILL die of cancer, with the latter two very quickly... FAIL!
nixtc 5 hours ago
#

Instead of wasting my bandwidth on porn I had to watch this bulimic demagogue ..... I want my 20MB back.
faceplantpro0 5 hours ago
#

@DementedBeast - Chernobyl is way to clean for her. But since she is speaking of the reactors in Japan, perhaps they are looking for volunteers to help seal up the plants. I am pretty sure that every human being that did that at Chernobyl died within the year. I believe their problem was that they didn't have the theory in USSR that radiation is good for you.

PS Every one heros' of the highest order. They all knew they were to die before they went.

javamanV3 5 hours ago'

She's a fucking Nazi bitch. Maybe not a card-carrying Nazi, but a Nazi by any other name is still a Nazi.
rickschtick 4 hours ago'
Why are these people so angry, so abusive when faced with someone who doesn't agree with their world view? Why the recourse to calling someone a Nazi or a bitch, or indeed both?

Perspective people, perspective.

Now why might that be?

The BBC's environment correspondent reports under the headline 'Nuclear power support in UK falls over Japan fears'. Interestingly the first line of the actual report reveals that 'More Britons support the building of new nuclear power stations than oppose it, despite the crisis at Japan's Fukushima plant, an opinion poll says.'

Richard Black's report continues 'But almost a half say they are worried about the safety of nuclear plants.'

After the BBC's scaremongering coverage of the Fukushima plant's problems I am surprised that more people are not worried about nuclear safety. The BBC line has been to ramp up the fears and exaggerate the radiation risks. This has worked, wherever I go I speak with people who think that the Fukushima plant is leaking huge amounts of lethal radiation and that large parts of north east Japan are all but death zones. This is of course mostly rubbish but scary rubbish is good television.

The opinion poll quoted was carried out by Friends of the Earth so I would like to know what the questions were and in what order they were asked. For instance was there a question along the lines of 'How worried are you by the recent leak of radiation at the Fukushima nuclear plant?' asked before the 'How worried are you by UK nuclear safety?' It is very easy to slant opinion poll questions to get the answers that you want. I am not saying that this is what Friends of the Earth have done but I would be very interested to know for sure.

Once you get past the headline and first few paragraphs, and we know that that is as far as many people get, Richard Black does admit that 'The Fukushima crisis has come with disturbing imagery - but the statistics suggest little impact' and 'Although the incident has put the issue of nuclear risk high up the news agenda, proponents can point to the fact that so far there has not been any impact on human health other than a few events involving workers at the power station.'

It is my opinion that the BBC have used the Fukushima incident as a way of pushing nuclear safety up the agenda as a way of helping the wind power industry out. The fact that reliance on wind power for 20% or more of power generation would have left the UK short of power on many days this winter is not something that the BBC and its 'expert' correspondents acknowledge, they have an agenda and they will continue to promote that agenda.

Monday, 21 March 2011

Humanitarian assistance to Japan

I note that, as in Haiti, the field hospital Israel is establishing in Japan is the first to be set up by any nation offering outside assistance. Oddly I can find no mention of this on the BBC News website where they still seem determined to try and convince us that nuclear disaster is only hours away; I have news for you, it almost certainly is not.


Thanks to JPost for the spot.

Wednesday, 16 March 2011

Life in north-east Japan post the earthquake and tsunami

Japanese residents forced to wash their dirty laundry in a river, can you imagine how you would feel if you were put in this situation.

The coastal town of Otsuchi has all but been reduced to nothing by the disaster, with more than half the 17,000 residents killed.


What has happened to this part of Japan is almost beyond belief and I really feel for them.

Monday, 14 March 2011

Japan earthquake update

Brave New Climate explains what's really happening in Japan's nuclear power plants and it's a tad more complex than the BBC make out! Here's an extract:
'Now, where does that leave us?
  • The plant is safe now and will stay safe.
  • Japan is looking at an INES Level 4 Accident: Nuclear accident with local consequences. That is bad for the company that owns the plant, but not for anyone else.
  • Some radiation was released when the pressure vessel was vented. All radioactive isotopes from the activated steam have gone (decayed). A very small amount of Cesium was released, as well as Iodine. If you were sitting on top of the plants’ chimney when they were venting, you should probably give up smoking to return to your former life expectancy. The Cesium and Iodine isotopes were carried out to the sea and will never be seen again.
  • There was some limited damage to the first containment. That means that some amounts of radioactive Cesium and Iodine will also be released into the cooling water, but no Uranium or other nasty stuff (the Uranium oxide does not “dissolve” in the water). There are facilities for treating the cooling water inside the third containment. The radioactive Cesium and Iodine will be removed there and eventually stored as radioactive waste in terminal storage.
  • The seawater used as cooling water will be activated to some degree. Because the control rods are fully inserted, the Uranium chain reaction is not happening. That means the “main” nuclear reaction is not happening, thus not contributing to the activation. The intermediate radioactive materials (Cesium and Iodine) are also almost gone at this stage, because the Uranium decay was stopped a long time ago. This further reduces the activation. The bottom line is that there will be some low level of activation of the seawater, which will also be removed by the treatment facilities.
  • The seawater will then be replaced over time with the “normal” cooling water
  • The reactor core will then be dismantled and transported to a processing facility, just like during a regular fuel change.
  • Fuel rods and the entire plant will be checked for potential damage. This will take about 4-5 years.
  • The safety systems on all Japanese plants will be upgraded to withstand a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami (or worse)
  • I believe the most significant problem will be a prolonged power shortage. About half of Japan’s nuclear reactors will probably have to be inspected, reducing the nation’s power generating capacity by 15%. This will probably be covered by running gas power plants that are usually only used for peak loads to cover some of the base load as well. That will increase your electricity bill, as well as lead to potential power shortages during peak demand, in Japan.
If you want to stay informed, please forget the usual media outlets and consult the following websites:

Here's a rather low-key piece of video showing how the earthquakeimpacted some way away from the epicentre; the moving earth from 1:28 is seriously weird.


Meanwhile this link takes you to some seriously scary video of the tsunami flooding through Kesennuma, in Miyagi Prefecture.

PicassaWeb has some interesting photos from Japan and Boing Boing has an interesting 'Nuclear energy 101: Inside the "black box" of power plants' for anyone whose knowledge of nuclear power begins and ends with Homer Simpson's workplace.



Sunday, 13 March 2011

The most incredible photos post the Japanese earthquake and tsunami

ABC Australia have the most incredibly detailed photos of Sendai, Natori, the Fukushima nuclear plant and more. Just pull the divide left and right for the before and after shots. Beautiful and very scary; I am not sure that people realise the true extent of the devastation that north east Japan has experienced.

Friday, 11 March 2011

The Japanese tsunami

There are some seriously scary videos of what's happened in Japan today as a result of the earthquake, this one shows just part of the force that nature can unleash against us...


This one shows just the sheer amount of water involved...


And this one the tsunami at an airport...


However it would seem that tsunamis are not that unknown in Japan. Here's some footage of one from 1983 hitting the Japanese fishing harbour of Wajima on Noto Peninsula...


And from 1993 footage of the aftermath of a devastating tsunami wave along the coasts of Hokkaidō resulting from a magnitude 7.8 earthquake, 80 miles offshore...

Tsunami watch

Following the earthquake in Japan this morning I thought this tsunami waning chart might be of interest...

Meanwhile I hear from Tokyo that the metro is not running and that many telephone lines are out of action. Is the Super Moon to blame? More on that later...

Monday, 30 March 2009

Reassuring news, I think not.

Further to my recent story reporting that North Korea are planning an ICBM test launch soon. I now read that
"Missile experts from Iran are in North Korea to help Pyongyang prepare for a rocket launch, according to reports.

Amid increasing global concern over the launch, which the US and its allies consider to be illegal, Japan's Sankei Shimbun newspaper claimed today that a 15-strong delegation from Tehran has been in the country advising the North Koreans since the beginning of March.

The experts include senior officials from the Iranian rocket and satellite producer Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group, the newspaper said.

The Iranians brought a letter from President Ahmadinejad to the North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il stressing the importance of co-operating on space technology, it added. "

This does not bode well, especially as any overflight of Japan may force the Japanese into action against the missile. The next week or so looks quite dangerous.

Friday, 16 January 2009

Pravda predicts

Not the BBC this time, but the original Russian Pravda. Pravda predicts for many countries in 2009, here's a few:
"Russia

There will be scattered protests and some will turn violent as the economy worsens. The government's plans to sustain industrial production, in the heavy industries, and to weaken the ruble and implement high tariffs will have the desired effects of keeping the nation from all out recession. Inflation will continue, though at a smaller pace, due to the overall global deflationary manner. Over all, the Russian economy will prove one of the strongest in the general world collapse.

The Russian military will continue to rebuild, as part of the government spending programs to keep heavy industry going. Weapon sales will also increase as wars and tensions spread due to the crisis.

The Anglo-Marxist drive to start a new Cold War will only increase and monies spent on "democratic" initiatives will increase. This will cause Other Russia to be emboldened enough to create more spectacles for Western financing and consumption. Eventually one or two will turn very violent and there will be deaths. The Russian government will label the National Bolshevik Workers' Party as a terrorist organization and arrest its leaders. The NBWP will turn to actual terror and there will be a small home grown terrorist threat throughout Russia. In general, the government will launch a major drive to clamp down on the skin heads. Gary Kasparov will flee to America where he will become rich making anti-Russian speeches and creating new anti-Russian hatred in the Anglo-Marxist sphere.

The demographic upswing will also suffer with fewer births, requiring more spending by the government to encourage people to continue having children. On the plus side, the inflow of the diasporas will increase, as conditions outside of Russia deteriorate and Russophobia spreads in the Anglo-Marxist sphere. "


No sign of bias there, it's like reading Nick Robinson analysing the prospects for the UK.


"America

The new year is going to bring major suffering to the US economy and society. On the one hand, the Bank Panic of 2008, started in and by America, will continue to ravage the recessional economy. On the other hand, large swaths of the American demographic, who voted for Obama, are expecting miracles that the US government simply can not provide.

As industry after industry lines up for government handouts and large scale money printing to meet those demands escalates, the depressionary bought will, by mid year, turn into a raging inflationary bonfire. Savings will disappear over night. Add to this continued mass layoffs that will reach another 2 to 3 million people, and an unofficial unemployment rate of 15%+ (official US statistics are so doctored as to make them worthless), a series of wars that will continue to drain lives and treasure and the dashed hopes of tens of millions and the US is in for a very hot and horrid summer.

Demonstrations, riots and looting will break out in various sections of the country, hardest hit by the collapsing economy. The government, which in the US has a history of using draconian tactics once violence starts (or as in the case of Seattle in 1998 there was no need for violence for the police to unleash hell on peaceful demonstrators) will lead to casualties and an escalation of tensions. The US army's North America command will be called in to affect areas, forcing martial law and gun confiscations.

By late summer, early fall, the foundations of the Civilian Defense Corp will be laid down. Echos of the Waffen SS anyone?

On the international front, the US will continue its imperial hubris, though maybe with a little more of a kinder face, but do not bet on it. Europe's disappointment will come fast."


Worryingly the above is a possible scenario.


"UK

The economic collapse in the UK will continue a foot with the US. Rights of the citizens will continue to be usurped by the state and all pretences of civil rights will disappear after the Islamics in the city center start to agitate and push out through direct violence all remaining British nationals. England will start to look a lot like Sweden with the cities owned by the immigrant Islamics and the refugee locals forced to pay the Islamics' welfare.

Once the majority starts leaning to the hard right and violence starts to break out between the military Islamics and the ultra nationalists, the UK government will drop all pretenses of the citizens rights and clamp down with martial law. Welcome to the Police State. If the public does not rise up at this point, the UK is lost.

To keep the audience nice and fearful, look for the British powers to escalate a Cold War with Russia, at any cost. "

Maybe a bit apocalyptic but the lines "Rights of the citizens will continue to be usurped by the state" and "the UK government will drop all pretenses of the citizens rights and clamp down with martial law. Welcome to the Police State. If the public does not rise up at this point, the UK is lost." are hard to argue with.


The sections on Poland, the Baltics and the Balkans are interesting exercises in Russian wish-listing. Whereas the sections on the Ukraine and Georgia are quite scary, borderline threatening:
"Ukraine

Ukraine's economy will continue to collapse and the Western puppet Oranges will continue to bicker and feed off of the suffering of the people as they maneuver for power against each other. The crisis point will come this spring, when no obvious economic turn around will be on the horizon. Ukraine will more than likely split in two. The east/south will become a close satellite of Russia, while the west will struggle on. Whether this is peaceful or violent will depend directly on how much the West stays out of this. "


"Georgia

Unbelievably, Saakashvili will continue to cling to power through the first half of the year. Under Washington's prodding, in early spring, he will relaunch the war and than be removed in a coup by his former allies. Moscow's response will, more than likely, be to not stop until Tbilisi. What will follow next will depend on how strong Russia feels, how weak and slow the West's response is, but annexation is not out of the question."


Pravda's predictions for the Middle East are interesting too:

"Israel

Israel will face a protracted series of wars on its borders, primarily in Lebanon and Egypt's Sinai and Gaza. Syria will also attempt to start one in the Golan Heights but this will pitter out. Olmert will finally be put to pastor, in a nice jail cell as he stands corruption charges. Netanyahu will more than likely be president, and being a pragmatist, he will take a much closer position to Russia, as Washington's influence falls. Russia will be pressed further to stop sales to Arabs of weapons, in exchange for Israeli loyalty and investments. "

All quite possible but I think Olmert is more likely to put out to "pasture" than to "pastor", unless he is a closet Christian of course.


Read the sections on Pakistan and India and wonder if they make sense.

Read the sections on China and wonder how much is wishful thinking, although the last paragraph is believable:
"Either way, look for US/Chinese relations to be down right hostile by the end of 2009. Internally, China will suffer much instability and rioting, as hundreds of millions of unneeded factory workers are forced back into their dirt poor farming villages. Luckily for the Chinese authorities and no so luckily for the citizens, extreme violence is always a top option for China's authorities ad will be used often and to effect."


I found the section on Japan interesting as the angle is quite positive... why?

"Japan

While Japan's export base economy will suffer for the same reason the rest of the world is suffering, Japan still retains a strong, well educated and affluent society. Along with strict cultural cohesion and a high rate of savings, Japan will maintain much of its wealth. Protectionist measures have secured most of Japan's industry inside of Japan.

This, coupled with the weak US, will prompt Japan to recreate, albeit without war this time, a new Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere, drawing into it's orbit various other local nations. Through 2009 there will be polite friction, as Japan pushes US influence out of central Pacific rim and south east Asia. As the dollar falls to hyper inflation, the Yen will be seen, by the second half of 2009, as the standard barer of Asian stability and success and will come to replace the dollar as the dominant power in that portion of the world.

Japan will see Russia as, at once, both a key energy supplier and trade partner and as a competitor to Asian domination, though a minor competitor. With China ripped by strife, Japan will have a free hand in Asia. "



All interesting stuff, no?