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Showing posts with label Risk. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Risk. Show all posts

Thursday, 7 March 2013

FRB: Press Release--Federal Reserve releases summary results of bank stress tests--March 7, 2013

'The nation's largest bank holding companies have continued to improve their ability to withstand an extremely adverse hypothetical economic scenario and are collectively in a much stronger capital position than before the financial crisis, according to the summary results of bank stress tests announced by the Federal Reserve on Thursday.'
So say the US Federal Reserve Why am I not feeling terribly reassured?

Saturday, 24 July 2010

How reassured should we be about the Banks passing the EU stress tests?

The BBC and others were keen to reassure us yesterday that all the major EU banks had passed the EU's stress tests. However should we be that reassured as the tests only involved evaluating possible losses on government bonds that the banks trade and not any that they are holding to maturity within the banking books. The trading books positions are marked to market whereas the banking book positions are accrual accounted. In a stressed situation if the banks need to liquidate such positions they may need to incur large losses to reflect the current market value. More importantly, if there is a default in any of the sovereign debts the banks will suffer significant losses and this may lead to more failures amongst the banks.

As Andrea Williams of Royal London Management said: "It does undermine the whole credibility of the tests"; it certainly does.

Monday, 26 October 2009

Why does the FTSE keep going up?

Alex Masterley explains why, I just wish he'd told me this a year ago!

"The main reason the FTSE didn't drop is because it is already overvalued. Does that make sense? No, well then you weren't listening last week when Charlie Bean (of the Bank of England) told the world that the purpose of QE was not to fill the banks with cash, but to raise the value of the assets they held. This would boost their balance sheets and plug them full of Tier 1 equity. [As an aside, if that was the reason, I fail to understand why the BoE didn't simply subscribe for £175m of bank equity paid for in the same way, by printing electronic money transferred into the selling bank's account at the BoE, but I digress].

So QE is all about hyping markets and that spills over into the FTSE. More recession means more QE, and more QE means more cash chasing the same gilts and equity, which means higher asset prices (or lower value of money depending how you look at it). So the economy is still in a mess but the FTSE stays at the same price because the market expects more dodgy government money to be on its way any time soon."

Tuesday, 15 September 2009

The flaw of averages


For my City friends (especially those in "risk") and anyone else interested in statistics.

Friday, 13 March 2009

Fear of Flying

The news that: "Experts have warned there is a "high probability" that a fault which caused a British Airways jet to crash-land at Heathrow could hit other Boeing 777s." does not reassure a nervous flyer like myself. The additional information that: "US air accident investigators called for a component to be redesigned after a Delta Air Lines plane reportedly encountered a similar problem. Manufacturers Rolls-Royce say the new part should be ready within the year." does not help; ready within the year does not help when I take four flights on 777s most years. I have never liked the idea of two engined planes flying the Atlantic, I would say three or four engines should be the minimum - a 747 would be my favourite or bring back the Tristar.

The BBC try to reassure us passengers with
"Aviation expert David Gleave said he would have no concerns about flying on a Boeing 777 as new "operating procedures", such as boosting the engine on approach to landing to keep the heat up, had been implemented.

"All the regulatory authorities are satisfied the new procedures which they will adopt or already have adopted will cure the problem as a temporary measure," he told BBC Radio 4's Today programme.

"Then new components will be fitted in time which will remove the need for the new operation procedure."

A Boeing spokeswoman said it had issued a set of guidelines for pilots to prevent long-term build-up of ice and these procedures had been approved by the regulatory bodies."

But have to admit that:
"the NTSB report said: "While the procedures may reduce the risk of a rollback in one or both engines due to ice blockage, they add complexity to flight crew operations, and the level of risk reduction is not well established.""



Alex Masterley has a take on this story that has me ven more worried, but it is a nice risk/reward comparison:
"It is good to see that in these difficult times, there are still people willing to take a measured risk. I refer of course to the world's airlines who will continue to fly Boeing 777's despite a known fault that has led to one crash and one near incident.

Our aviation correspondent reports:

The cause of the crash at Heathrow of BA 038 in January 2008 has been identified as fuel starvation or what engineers call "no fuel getting to the engine". Investigators have identified the primary factor leading to this problem, which they has been described by leading technical experts as "a big lump of ice in the fuel tank", which arose from an adverse thermodynamic environment at high altitudes. The effect of the blockage was to limit the flow of fuel to both engines.

With over 750 planes put in service in the last 15 years, that works out at about 2 incidents in 2.8 million flights, or about 10 times the probability of winning the national lottery.

The Boeing 777 is widely used on transatlantic and intercontinental flights. Industry experts say that in the event of a similar mid-flight incident, where ice accumulating in the tanks might be dislodged by turbulence or other activity, then the pilot would be unlikely to be able to manoeuvre the plane in the same manner as Capt. Sully Sullenberger, who recently landed an aircraft in the Hudson River shortly after take off from LaGuardia Airport.

The most likely manoeuvre after a total loss of power, including failure avionics and controls, would be a 35,000 ft "plummet", putting down on the surface of the sea at a velocity above industry norms, causing likely damage to the aircraft fuselage, after which the aircraft would probably "sink like a stone", industry sources commented."


I don't normally drink on planes, far too dehydrating, but I can envisage my hitting the alcohol just a tad on my next few flights.

Tuesday, 10 February 2009

Risk analysis and its part in the banking collapse

Alex Masterley has an excellent piece on his blog today regarding the role of risk analysis in the fall of the banking system. There are some technical points but all of it should be easily understandable by those of us outside of (but with an interest in) banking. I reproduce here his last paragraph as I think it really makes the point well:
"When risk assessments were made in banks the one question that was not asked was "What happens if X market goes away?" because the likely answer was "it ain't gonna happen, but if it does we all go to hell in handcart, you , me, the Governor of the Bank of England and the whole economy". The risk was put in the very low risk category, not factored into any pricing models and generally ignored. On a deal by deal basis that made perfect sense because the loss on any deal was limited to the values related to that particular deal. On an aggregate basis the numbers were so huge that no bank would contemplate the losses resulting from any individual deal, so deals got done and the market consensus was that these sorts of things did not and would not happen. Which meant that the market grew and grew and the issues that were ignored were precisely those that occurred because nobody was worrying abut them."