When people like me dared to point out that Egypt had a land border with Gaza as well as Israel, so if Israel was blockading Gaza so was Egypt, I remember being informed by Middle East 'experts' (often on the BBC) that this was because Israel was not allowing Egypt to open the Rafah border crossing. Maps were produced showing how Israel stopped Egypt opening this border. It all seemed rather odd and unlikely at the time and now that the new Egyptian government have opened the Rafah border without any problems from Israel we can see what should have been obvious - the BBC couldn't bear to blame anyone other than Israel for the blockade of Gaza and so skewed the evidence accordingly.
Similarly when the Arab revolts started I remember hearing that the Syrian would not face the same revolts as that government was respected by its people 'for standing up to Israel'. Thise same experts seem to have gone awfully quiet about that expert comment now that the revolts in Syria are shoing how repressive a regime it is that rules Syria and how unloved they are.
Neither of the two above examples mean that the Arab revolts are anything other than bad news for Israel. The current regime in Egypt will move to be more antagonistic towards Israel and the elected government that replaces it will be more influenced by the Muslim Brotherhood than the 'experts' still insist will be the case. Any new government in Syria will be even more Islamist than anyone yet believes possible.
Events in the Middle East are heading towards the end of Israel and I think the end game could start to play out before the end of the summer.
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2 comments:
Some experts are still not giving up on Assad though, particularly the sort who get invites to appear on the BBC.
On Radio 4 ('The World At One') on Tuesday, Dr Eugene Rogan of Oxford University (an arabist academic who's been critical of Israel in the past and wants Hamas brought in from the cold) was still pushing the line that Assad has a lot of support in Syria, "for standing up against Western domination, for a strong stance against Israel, for calling for justice for the Palestinians. For that he's seen to be a credible person."
Mr. Goat ,
You know more than me about these matters , but I would never write off the Israelis !!
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