Tuesday, 8 November 2016

Electoral Map—Presidential Election 2016 | SurveyMonkey


Our final snapshot of the national popular vote gives Hillary Clinton a six percentage point lead over Donald Trump, 47 to 41 percent, with 6 percent for Libertarian Gary Johnson and 3 percent for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.Clinton's lead has been remarkably steady during the Fall campaign. As reported by our partners at NBC News, "Clinton has not only maintained a lead over the Republican nominee since the end of July, but the margin of her lead has been between 4 to 6 percentage points since the second week of September."That six point lead in the popular vote translates into a lopsided Clinton advantage in the all-important Electoral College. Our final snapshot of voter preferences in all 50 states plus DC, based on more than 74,186 interviews conducted during the final week of the campaign, gives Clinton a lead of three percentage points or better in 21 states. That's a total of 257 electoral votes, which is thirteen shy of the 270 needed to win. Although Trump leads by three percentage points or better in 23 states, they earn him just 188 electoral votes.While the race is closer in seven states – classified as "toss-ups" colored in grey on our map – SurveyMonkey's tracking has given Clinton modest but consistent numerical leads in five states, two of which alone (Florida and Michigan) would assure an Electoral College victory. Clinton would pick up a total of 45 more electoral votes if she were to win both.Three more states – Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada, representing another 33 electoral votes–have been genuine toss-ups in our tracking, with very narrow margins that have not consistently favored either candidate.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

And yet - the actual vote is within 0.2 % and Trump wins. Go figure.
As in "go figure out" how either everybody got it wrong, or how everybody knew they were wrong but hoped they could sway some votes.