Saturday, 16 June 2012

Why does anyone believe these 'experts'?

The UK government's Climate Projection Study of 2009 predicted that climate change would cause much drier summers in the south of England, with rainfall dropping by up to 60% during June, July and August. Here is how the rainfall of the past five summers in the South East of England has compared with the long-term average (1970-2000):
2007....... 174%
2009........ 97%

After 12 days of June 2012, rainfall in some areas has already exceeded 50% of the average for an entire summer.


Thanks to The Spectator's 'Barometer' column for the figures.

Ah but your figures are only for the Sough east of England I hear the cry from the 'warmists'. True, so here are the reservoir levels (at 13 June - last figures available, it has rained a hell of a lot since then) from Southern Water:
'Bewl Water reservoir at Lamberhurst near Tunbridge Wells, Kent, is the largest stretch of water in the South East of England. The reservoir is key to providing water to the region.

Capacity: 31,000 megalitres - 81% full, approx 2% below 10 year average and well abve the minimum over that period

Darwell reservoir near Robertsbridge, East Sussex, provides water for the Hastings area.

Capacity: 4,730 megalitres - 80% full, approx approx 2% below 10 year average and well above the minimum over that period

Powdermill reservoir near Sedlescombe, East Sussex, provides water for the Hastings area. Our smallest surface water reservoir, this is currently kept full ready to replenish Darwell reservoir if needed later in the summer.

Capacity: 1,060 megalitres - 98% full, approx 9% above 10 year average and 30% above minimum

Weir Wood reservoir near East Grinstead, is key to water supply in North Sussex. The reservoir is filled by rainwater and during a drought period the use of the reservoir is minimised to conserve supplies.

Capacity: 5,600 megalitres - 100% full, approx 20% above 10 year average and 50% above minimum.

Now take a look at that Southern Water page and note how the summary graphic for each reservoir is so out of date which means, coincidentally I am sure, that the impression of present dangerous drought is given.

How about South West Water?
They present their figures differently but there we see that at 10 June:
Total reservoir storage for the week: 103212 Ml (89.4%)
This week last year total storage was: 79089 Ml (68.5%)

Here's some more information from South West Water comparing water levels now with last year and 1995:

I suppose I could go on and on but I think you get the picture.

Over the last few years I have often referred to another prediction form another set of experts. In July 2009 (almost exactly three years ago) I wrote this:
'As I sit in London watching the rain fall as it has for the last few July days, indeed as it did for much of the summers of 2007 and 2008, I remember the certainty with which The Guardian reported in 2006 as fact that:

"Scientists know a lot about how events will unfold...which means that whatever we do, our climate destiny is fixed for the next few decades... Rainfall will decline in the summer and the increased deluges in winter will struggle to replenish thirsty reservoirs because much of the water will run off the baked ground."

Scientists know... climate destiny is fixed... Rainfall will decline in the summer..." It's all rubbish folks; most of these scientists are not predicting based on science, they are designing science to fit the desired predictions.

So after years of knowing that reservoirs would not be replenished by winter rains we have a situation, as the rain pours off my roof, where three quarters of UK reservoirs have higher than normal stocks...

Scientists know? I think not.

1 comment:

Tentacles said...


Ex- is a has-been and a spurt is a drip under pressure.

The whole climate change issue is unravelling and revealing itself for the utter bollox it truly is. The trick is to spot the next lefty, anti-progress bandwaggon and stop it before it starts.

My money is on either anti-fracking or prevention of development of the Canadian oil sands. Either evolution has the triple advantages that they will stabilise the oil price for a long period, undermine and possibly bypass the desert lunatics and marginalise the influence of the US to some extent. All likely to piss off greenies so making them a valid target for the eco-loons.