"Obama Has Modest 4-Point Lead" and that "Barack Obama maintains a modest 46% to 42% lead over John McCain among registered voters nationally in Gallup Poll Daily tracking, with no sign yet of a significant "bounce" from Obama's high-visibility world tour."
Meanwhile I noticed a very telling remark on Political Betting where in an article on the latest MORO opinion polls I read (my emphasis)"
These are the figures with comparisons on a month ago CON 47% (+2): LAB 27% (-2): LD 15% (-2). These figures, like all MORI surveys are based on those “certain to vote”. The fieldwork ended on July 20th - so it’s up to date.Now why would not over-representing public sector workers be important? Could it be that Gordon Brown's client state is more likely to vote for the hand that feeds it than the rest of the population?
The pollster which is the only one that does not applying a political weighting to its samples. has undergone a major methodological review which took place following the London Mayoral election. All surveys are now done by telephone and the pollster takes measures to ensure that it is not over-representing public sector workers in its samples.