Thursday, 29 November 2007

Another rogue poll?

The Independent poll that I reported on last week was dismissed by many as a rogue poll or a statistical outlier - hmmm. What about this poll from tomorrow's Telegraph? "An exclusive YouGov poll for The Daily Telegraph puts the Tories on 43 per cent - 11 points ahead of Labour, who have sunk to just 32 per cent. Only two months ago the Tories trailed Labour by 11 points and were facing the prospect of a landslide defeat in an early election. The lead - the Tories biggest since Baroness Thatcher's heyday in 1988 - demonstrates the extent of the crisis now gripping Gordon Brown's government in the wake of the run on the Northern Rock bank, the loss of 25 million child benefit records and the party funding scandal."

Don't forget that thanks to the bias inherent in the electoral system in this once great nation, this 11 point lead does not mean a massive Conservative majority. "According to Mr King, the professor of Government at Essex University, if the results of the opinion poll were repeated in a general election, it would certainly lead to the Tories being the biggest party in Parliament, probably with an overall majority."

Do you think Gordon now wishes he had held that early election?

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